AI correctly predicted the Inter Club d'Escaldes win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Inter Club d'Escaldes Inter Club d'Escaldes ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Club d'Escaldes | 41.8% | 67.3% | -25.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 25.7% | 19.9% | +5.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 32.6% | 12.8% | +19.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Inter Club d'Escaldes's win probability at 67.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 25.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Inter Club d'Escaldes win 3–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Inter Club d'Escaldes higher (67.3% vs model 41.8%, 25.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Inter Club d'Escaldes win 3–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
May 09, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Inter Club d'Escaldes 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 32.6%
- xG · Inter Club d'Escaldes 1.45 — Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 1.25
-
May 09, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Inter Club d'Escaldes 1.33 · Draw 4.50 · Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 7.00
- Implied 1X2 · Inter Club d'Escaldes 67.3% · Draw 19.9% · Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 12.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
May 09, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Inter Club d'Escaldes 1.33 · Draw 4.50 · Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 7.00
- Implied 1X2 · Inter Club d'Escaldes 67.3% · Draw 19.9% · Atlètic Club d'Escaldes 12.8%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
May 10, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Inter Club d'Escaldes win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1a Divisió — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | UE Santa Coloma | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 51 |
| 3 | Ranger's | 24 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 48 |
| 4 | FC Santa Coloma | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 44 |
| 5 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 34 |
| 6 | Penya Encarnada | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 24 |
| 7 | Ordino | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 22 |
| 8 | Carroi | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 |
| 9 | Esperança d'Andorra | 24 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 11 |
| 10 | Pas de la Casa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 24 | 47 | 24 | +23 | 54 |
| 2 | Ranger's | 24 | 46 | 22 | +24 | 48 |
| 3 | UE Santa Coloma | 24 | 45 | 13 | +32 | 51 |
| 4 | FC Santa Coloma | 24 | 45 | 20 | +25 | 44 |
| 5 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 24 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 | Ordino | 24 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 22 |
| 7 | Penya Encarnada | 24 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 24 |
| 8 | Esperança d'Andorra | 24 | 15 | 47 | -32 | 11 |
| 9 | Carroi | 24 | 15 | 55 | -40 | 17 |
| 10 | Pas de la Casa | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 |
