AI correctly predicted the Penya Encarnada win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
A
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Penya Encarnada Penya Encarnada ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Penya Encarnada win 2–1).
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Penya Encarnada 1.49 — UE Santa Coloma 1.23
-
Feb 07, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Penya Encarnada win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
2.31
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Penya Encarnada win · Penya Encarnada 2–1 UE Santa Coloma
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 43.2%
- Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1a Divisió — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 24 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 54 |
| 2 | UE Santa Coloma | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 51 |
| 3 | Ranger's | 24 | 15 | 3 | 6 | 48 |
| 4 | FC Santa Coloma | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 44 |
| 5 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 34 |
| 6 | Penya Encarnada | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 24 |
| 7 | Ordino | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 22 |
| 8 | Carroi | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 17 |
| 9 | Esperança d'Andorra | 24 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 11 |
| 10 | Pas de la Casa | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 24 | 47 | 24 | +23 | 54 |
| 2 | Ranger's | 24 | 46 | 22 | +24 | 48 |
| 3 | UE Santa Coloma | 24 | 45 | 13 | +32 | 51 |
| 4 | FC Santa Coloma | 24 | 45 | 20 | +25 | 44 |
| 5 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes | 24 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 | Ordino | 24 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 22 |
| 7 | Penya Encarnada | 24 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 24 |
| 8 | Esperança d'Andorra | 24 | 15 | 47 | -32 | 11 |
| 9 | Carroi | 24 | 15 | 55 | -40 | 17 |
| 10 | Pas de la Casa | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 1 |
