Predictions / Football / Portugal. Primeira Liga / Famalicao vs Alverca

Prediction Audit: Famalicao vs Alverca Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Famalicao Famalicao
May 16, 2026 - 19:30
1 1.14
0 0.92
xG Accuracy: 75%
Alverca Alverca

AI correctly predicted the Famalicao win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Famalicao Famalicao ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Famalicao higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Famalicao -19.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Famalicao 38.9% 58.8% -19.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 33.5% 24.1% +9.4 pp Model Higher
Alverca 27.6% 17.1% +10.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Famalicao's win probability at 58.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.9%, a difference of 19.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Famalicao win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Famalicao than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.06, 1 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Famalicao higher (58.7% vs model 38.9%, 19.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Famalicao win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Famalicao 38.9% · Draw 33.5% · Alverca 27.5%
    • xG · Famalicao 1.14 — Alverca 0.92
  2. May 17, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Famalicao 1.63 · Draw 3.97 · Alverca 5.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Famalicao 58.8% · Draw 24.1% · Alverca 17.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Famalicao 1.63 · Draw 3.97 · Alverca 5.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Famalicao 58.8% · Draw 24.1% · Alverca 17.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Famalicao win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (20 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 42/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 05:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1821739

Closing Odds 1.63
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Famalicao win · Famalicao 1–0 Alverca
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primeira Liga
  • Fixture: Famalicao vs Alverca
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.9% · Draw 33.6% · Away 27.5%
  • xG (showing): Famalicao 1.14 — Alverca 0.92 (total xG ≈ 2.06)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 66.0% · Over 2.5 34.0%); BTTS No (Yes 42.6% · No 57.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 42.6% · No 57.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (14.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Primeira Liga Primeira Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Porto 34 28 4 2 88
2 Sporting CP 34 25 7 2 82
3 Benfica 34 23 11 0 80
4 SC Braga 34 16 11 7 59
5 Famalicao 34 15 11 8 56
6 GIL Vicente 34 13 11 10 50
7 Moreirense 34 12 7 15 43
8 Arouca 34 12 6 16 42
9 Guimaraes 34 12 6 16 42
10 Estoril 34 10 9 15 39
11 Alverca 34 10 9 15 39
12 Rio Ave 34 8 12 14 36
13 Santa Clara 34 9 9 16 36
14 Nacional 34 9 7 18 34
15 Estrela 34 6 12 16 30
16 Casa Pia 34 6 12 16 30
17 Tondela 34 6 10 18 28
18 AVS 34 3 12 19 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sporting CP 34 89 24 +65 82
2 Benfica 34 74 25 +49 80
3 FC Porto 34 66 18 +48 88
4 SC Braga 34 64 36 +28 59
5 Estoril 34 54 57 -3 39
6 GIL Vicente 34 47 38 +9 50
7 Arouca 34 47 64 -17 42
8 Famalicao 34 42 29 +13 56
9 Guimaraes 34 39 51 -12 42
10 Estrela 34 38 56 -18 30
11 Nacional 34 37 45 -8 34
12 Moreirense 34 37 49 -12 43
13 Alverca 34 35 52 -17 39
14 Rio Ave 34 35 57 -22 36
15 Santa Clara 34 32 41 -9 36
16 Casa Pia 34 31 57 -26 30
17 Tondela 34 27 55 -28 28
18 AVS 34 27 67 -40 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Sporting CP 34 69.0 23.9 +45.1 82
2 Benfica 34 68.4 27.3 +41.1 80
3 FC Porto 34 62.1 22.5 +39.6 88
4 SC Braga 34 57.3 37.3 +20.0 59
5 Famalicao 34 45.6 33.7 +11.9 56
6 GIL Vicente 34 44.9 36.8 +8.1 50
7 Santa Clara 34 36.4 35.2 +1.2 36
8 Alverca 34 40.5 40.1 +0.4 39
9 Guimaraes 34 39.3 45.4 -6.1 42
10 Tondela 34 36.6 48.7 -12.1 28
11 Estoril 34 42.8 55.2 -12.4 39
12 Nacional 34 37.9 50.6 -12.7 34
13 Estrela 34 40.7 53.6 -12.9 30
14 Rio Ave 34 34.2 52.3 -18.1 36
15 Arouca 34 30.8 49.4 -18.6 42
16 Moreirense 34 31.3 51.7 -20.4 43
17 Casa Pia 34 31.6 54.8 -23.2 30
18 AVS 34 31.9 62.6 -30.7 21
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