1X2 Model EV
- Lean
- Guimaraes
- Model probability
- 33.6%
- Market probability
- 36.6%
- Difference
- -3.0 pp
- Risk-adjusted EV (P1.5)
- -10.1%
No Value Edge
Arouca vs Guimaraes Prediction
Model leans Guimaraes, but the market disagrees — monitor only.
No Primary Bet
3.0/10
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
OddsGPT AI Confidence Score measures prediction reliability using AI probability, market signals, xG data, and performance indicators. A higher score reflects stronger model confidence and data support, helping users identify higher-quality opportunities.
Reason
Market Conflict
Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.
Other factors
- Market Quality Risk
Consensus EV
-3.6%
Calculated using a market-adjusted probability. The model probability is partially adjusted toward market expectation to reduce false positives.
Decision Model vs Market Gap
3.0 pp
Difference between the Decision Model probability and the no-vig market probability for the selected outcome.
Reliability
60/100 · Moderate
Reliability measures the quality of the prediction signal. It considers: • model validation • market alignment • data quality • bookmaker coverage • market movement consistency It does not represent the probability of winning.
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Prediction Overview
Base Prediction Model
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
These probabilities are generated from the base xG scoring simulation (Poisson model). They show the expected match outcome distribution before decision-layer calibration.
Raw match outcome probabilities from the xG-based scoring model.
Decision Model vs Market
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
The Decision Model applies additional calibration (including low-score correlation adjustments) to produce the probability used by the Decision Engine for value calculation, EV estimation, and Primary Bet decisions.
| Decision Model | 33.6% |
| Market (no-vig) | 36.6% |
| Difference | +3.0 pp |
The market has moved away from Guimaraes, but the model still strongly favours Guimaraes.
Why Is The Bet Blocked?
Positive factors
- ✓Clear directional model signal: Guimaraes
Risk factors
- ✗Elevated xG uncertaintyModel confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
- ✗Market moved against Guimaraes2.25 → 2.55 · ↑ +13.3%
- ✗Outlier price excluded from Primary+8% EV → consensus -3.6%
Market Intelligence
Market drift · Guimaraes · ↑ +13.3%
Breadth
13/13
Books moving same direction
Pinnacle Sharp
↑ +21.5%
Betano
↑ +17.8%
SBO Sharp
↑ +17.2%
Marathonbet
↑ +16.9%
1xBet
↑ +16.7%
William Hill
↑ +16.3%
Betfair Sharp
↑ +15.6%
10Bet
↑ +14.4%
Bet365 Sharp
↑ +13.3%
188Bet
↑ +12.1%
888Sport
↑ +11.1%
Superbet
↑ +7.3%
Unibet
↑ +4.4%
Move Score
47 (B)
Move Score (0–100) grades how strong a market move is — steam (shortening) or drift (lengthening). A+ · ≥75 with 3+ books reacting — strongest multi-book conviction A · ≥60 with 2+ books — strong multi-book signal B · ≥40 — moderate move; confirmation incomplete C · Below 40, dead/illiquid, or volatile — limited conviction
PhaseMarket drift
StatusDrift
CLVWaiting for Close
Ref bookBet365
⚠ Market moved away from Guimaraes while the model still favours another side.
Market Decisions (Model vs Market)
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV.
Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Each card compares the model probability with the no-vig (or best available) market price, then shows a risk-adjusted or raw EV. Positive EV is a pricing signal, not a Primary bet instruction.
Over / Under 2.5
- Lean
- Under 2.5
- Model probability (Under)
- 64.7%
- Market probability (Under)
- —
- Difference
- —
- Risk-adjusted EV
- —
No Value Edge
Total Goals (Model)
BTTS (No)
- Lean
- No
- Model probability
- 55.8%
- Market probability
- —
- Difference
- —
- Risk-adjusted EV
- —
No Value Edge
BTTS Yes 44.2%
BTTS No 55.8%
Correct Score
- Top Score
- 1-1
- Model probability (1-1)
- 13.5%
- Market probability (1-1)
- —
- Difference
- —
- EV @ Market Odds
- —
No Value
Top 5 Model Scores
- 1-1 13.5%
- 0-1 12.9%
- 1-0 12.7%
- 0-0 12.1%
- 1-2 7.2%
Match Phase: Live · HT
Decision Lifecycle
Current stage: Closing unavailable
-
Prediction Generated
-
Market ComparedEntry 2.55
-
Validation Passed
-
Closing RecordedClosing Unavailable No complete pre-match closing snapshot
-
CLV EvaluatedCLV Pending Requires closing line after full time
Final Verdict
No Primary Bet
The Decision Model estimates Guimaraes at 33.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 36.6%.
Decision Summary
- Decision Model identifies Guimaraes as the value side (33.6%)
- Market pricing conflicts with the model lean
- Model–market disagreement blocks Primary sizing
- Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary
- Edge does not clear Primary threshold
- Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty
Action
Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.
OddsGPT Decision Engine 2.5.0 · Educational framing only · Not personalised advice
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