Predictions / Football / Slovakia. 2. liga / Púchov vs Považská Bystrica

Prediction Audit: Púchov vs Považská Bystrica Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Púchov Púchov
May 15, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Považská Bystrica Považská Bystrica

The model missed the final outcome (Považská Bystrica win 0–1).

The model had projected Púchov at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Púchov Považská Bystrica ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Považská Bystrica -3.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Púchov 41.8% 38.6% +3.1 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 25.0% +0.7 pp Aligned
Považská Bystrica 32.6% 36.4% -3.8 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Považská Bystrica win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Púchov; match finished Považská Bystrica

Market lesson

The full-time result was Považská Bystrica win 0–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 15, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Púchov 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Považská Bystrica 32.6%
    • xG · Púchov 1.45 — Považská Bystrica 1.25
  2. May 15, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Púchov 2.30 · Draw 3.56 · Považská Bystrica 2.44
    • Implied 1X2 · Púchov 38.6% · Draw 25.0% · Považská Bystrica 36.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 15, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Púchov 2.30 · Draw 3.56 · Považská Bystrica 2.44
    • Implied 1X2 · Púchov 38.6% · Draw 25.0% · Považská Bystrica 36.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 15, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Považská Bystrica win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 80/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 00:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7560100

Closing Odds 2.44
AI Fair Odds 2.02
CLV Pending
Final Result Považská Bystrica win · Púchov 0–1 Považská Bystrica
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 49.4%
  • Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 2. liga
  • Fixture: Púchov vs Považská Bystrica
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-15 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Púchov 1.45 — Považská Bystrica 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.3% · Implied: 41.4% · Probability edge: +3.9 pts · Est. EV: +8.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.7% · No 45.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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2. liga 2. liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dukla Banská Bystrica 30 20 6 4 66
2 Lokomotíva Zvolen 30 13 10 7 49
3 Liptovský Mikuláš 30 13 9 8 48
4 Petržalka 30 14 6 10 48
5 Malženice 30 13 8 9 47
6 Pohronie 30 11 11 8 44
7 Zlaté Moravce 30 12 8 10 44
8 Inter Bratislava 30 12 6 12 42
9 Slovan Bratislava II 30 10 10 10 40
10 Šamorín 30 10 8 12 38
11 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 30 9 8 13 35
12 Považská Bystrica 30 8 9 13 33
13 Žilina II 30 9 6 15 33
14 Slávia TU Košice 30 8 8 14 32
15 Púchov 30 6 11 13 29
16 Stará Ľubovňa 30 6 8 16 26
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dukla Banská Bystrica 30 61 25 +36 66
2 Zlaté Moravce 30 57 49 +8 44
3 Liptovský Mikuláš 30 55 47 +8 48
4 Pohronie 30 47 35 +12 44
5 Lokomotíva Zvolen 30 46 36 +10 49
6 Petržalka 30 45 31 +14 48
7 Slovan Bratislava II 30 45 48 -3 40
8 Malženice 30 44 38 +6 47
9 Šamorín 30 44 46 -2 38
10 Žilina II 30 43 59 -16 33
11 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 30 41 52 -11 35
12 Považská Bystrica 30 38 49 -11 33
13 Slávia TU Košice 30 38 54 -16 32
14 Inter Bratislava 30 35 36 -1 42
15 Stará Ľubovňa 30 35 52 -17 26
16 Púchov 30 33 50 -17 29
2. liga Slovakia. 2. liga Predictions