Predictions / Football / Slovakia. 2. liga / Stará Ľubovňa vs Malženice

Prediction Audit: Stará Ľubovňa vs Malženice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stará Ľubovňa Stará Ľubovňa
May 15, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Malženice Malženice

The model missed the final outcome (Malženice win 1–2).

The model had projected Stará Ľubovňa at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Stará Ľubovňa Malženice ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Malženice higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Malženice -7.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Stará Ľubovňa 41.8% 36.5% +5.2 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 23.1% +2.5 pp Aligned
Malženice 32.6% 40.4% -7.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Malženice's win probability at 40.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Malženice win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Malženice. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Stará Ľubovňa by 7.8 percentage points (49.6% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 15, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Stará Ľubovňa 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Malženice 32.6%
    • xG · Stará Ľubovňa 1.45 — Malženice 1.25
  2. May 15, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Stará Ľubovňa 2.43 · Draw 3.84 · Malženice 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Stará Ľubovňa 36.5% · Draw 23.1% · Malženice 40.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 15, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Stará Ľubovňa 2.43 · Draw 3.84 · Malženice 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Stará Ľubovňa 36.5% · Draw 23.1% · Malženice 40.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 15, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Malženice win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3439277

Closing Odds 2.2
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Malženice win · Stará Ľubovňa 1–2 Malženice
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 2. liga
  • Fixture: Stará Ľubovňa vs Malženice
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-15 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Stará Ľubovňa 1.45 — Malženice 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 50.3% · Implied: 42.5% · Probability edge: +7.8 pts · Est. EV: +13.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 49.7% · No 50.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.8%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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2. liga 2. liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dukla Banská Bystrica 30 20 6 4 66
2 Lokomotíva Zvolen 30 13 10 7 49
3 Liptovský Mikuláš 30 13 9 8 48
4 Petržalka 30 14 6 10 48
5 Malženice 30 13 8 9 47
6 Pohronie 30 11 11 8 44
7 Zlaté Moravce 30 12 8 10 44
8 Inter Bratislava 30 12 6 12 42
9 Slovan Bratislava II 30 10 10 10 40
10 Šamorín 30 10 8 12 38
11 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 30 9 8 13 35
12 Považská Bystrica 30 8 9 13 33
13 Žilina II 30 9 6 15 33
14 Slávia TU Košice 30 8 8 14 32
15 Púchov 30 6 11 13 29
16 Stará Ľubovňa 30 6 8 16 26
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dukla Banská Bystrica 30 61 25 +36 66
2 Zlaté Moravce 30 57 49 +8 44
3 Liptovský Mikuláš 30 55 47 +8 48
4 Pohronie 30 47 35 +12 44
5 Lokomotíva Zvolen 30 46 36 +10 49
6 Petržalka 30 45 31 +14 48
7 Slovan Bratislava II 30 45 48 -3 40
8 Malženice 30 44 38 +6 47
9 Šamorín 30 44 46 -2 38
10 Žilina II 30 43 59 -16 33
11 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 30 41 52 -11 35
12 Považská Bystrica 30 38 49 -11 33
13 Slávia TU Košice 30 38 54 -16 32
14 Inter Bratislava 30 35 36 -1 42
15 Stará Ľubovňa 30 35 52 -17 26
16 Púchov 30 33 50 -17 29
2. liga Slovakia. 2. liga Predictions