Predictions / Football / Germany. 3. Liga / FC Schweinfurt 05 vs Erzgebirge Aue

Prediction Audit: FC Schweinfurt 05 vs Erzgebirge Aue Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC Schweinfurt 05 FC Schweinfurt 05
May 16, 2026 - 11:30
2 1.42
4 1.71
xG Accuracy: 45%
Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue

AI correctly predicted the Erzgebirge Aue win.

The match finished 2–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 2-2 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Erzgebirge Aue -3.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FC Schweinfurt 05 30.6% 30.0% +0.7 pp Aligned
Draw 26.2% 23.5% +2.8 pp Aligned
Erzgebirge Aue 43.1% 46.6% -3.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Erzgebirge Aue win 2–4).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.13) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Erzgebirge Aue win 2–4).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FC Schweinfurt 05 30.7% · Draw 26.2% · Erzgebirge Aue 43.1%
    • xG · FC Schweinfurt 05 1.42 — Erzgebirge Aue 1.71
  2. May 16, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FC Schweinfurt 05 3.14 · Draw 4.01 · Erzgebirge Aue 2.02
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Schweinfurt 05 30.0% · Draw 23.5% · Erzgebirge Aue 46.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FC Schweinfurt 05 3.14 · Draw 4.01 · Erzgebirge Aue 2.02
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Schweinfurt 05 30.0% · Draw 23.5% · Erzgebirge Aue 46.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Erzgebirge Aue win · 2–4
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 82/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:32 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1660983

Closing Odds 2.02
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Erzgebirge Aue win · FC Schweinfurt 05 2–4 Erzgebirge Aue
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Liga
  • Fixture: FC Schweinfurt 05 vs Erzgebirge Aue
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.7% · Draw 26.2% · Away 43.1%
  • xG (showing): FC Schweinfurt 05 1.42 — Erzgebirge Aue 1.71 (total xG ≈ 3.13)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 39.5% · Implied: 34.7% · Probability edge: +4.8 pts · Est. EV: +10.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.5% · No 36.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Liga 3. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 VfL Osnabrück 38 24 8 6 80
2 Energie Cottbus 38 21 9 8 72
3 Rot-Weiß Essen 38 20 10 8 70
4 MSV Duisburg 38 19 11 8 68
5 Hansa Rostock 38 18 13 7 67
6 Verl 38 18 10 10 64
7 Alemannia Aachen 38 19 7 12 64
8 TSV 1860 München 38 15 11 12 56
9 SV Wehen 38 15 8 15 53
10 Waldhof Mannheim 38 15 7 16 52
11 FC Viktoria Köln 38 15 6 17 51
12 FC Ingolstadt 04 38 13 10 15 49
13 SSV Jahn Regensburg 38 14 7 17 49
14 Stuttgart II 38 13 7 18 46
15 FC Saarbrücken 38 10 14 14 44
16 Hoffenheim II 38 12 7 19 43
17 Havelse 38 9 8 21 35
18 Erzgebirge Aue 38 7 13 18 34
19 SSV Ulm 1846 38 9 6 23 33
20 FC Schweinfurt 05 38 5 6 27 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Verl 38 82 48 +34 64
2 Rot-Weiß Essen 38 78 66 +12 70
3 Alemannia Aachen 38 76 57 +19 64
4 Hansa Rostock 38 74 49 +25 67
5 Energie Cottbus 38 72 51 +21 72
6 VfL Osnabrück 38 66 34 +32 80
7 MSV Duisburg 38 66 49 +17 68
8 FC Ingolstadt 04 38 65 56 +9 49
9 Hoffenheim II 38 65 71 -6 43
10 Waldhof Mannheim 38 59 72 -13 52
11 Stuttgart II 38 57 69 -12 46
12 Havelse 38 57 89 -32 35
13 SV Wehen 38 54 52 +2 53
14 TSV 1860 München 38 54 53 +1 56
15 SSV Jahn Regensburg 38 54 58 -4 49
16 FC Viktoria Köln 38 51 53 -2 51
17 FC Saarbrücken 38 51 57 -6 44
18 Erzgebirge Aue 38 51 70 -19 34
19 SSV Ulm 1846 38 49 78 -29 33
20 FC Schweinfurt 05 38 38 87 -49 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Energie Cottbus 38 48.1 34.3 +13.8 72
2 Hansa Rostock 38 49.0 35.6 +13.4 67
3 VfL Osnabrück 38 44.5 31.3 +13.2 80
4 Verl 38 44.0 31.6 +12.4 64
5 MSV Duisburg 38 38.0 30.8 +7.2 68
6 FC Ingolstadt 04 38 47.0 40.4 +6.6 49
7 TSV 1860 München 38 45.8 42.6 +3.2 56
8 Rot-Weiß Essen 38 41.9 38.8 +3.1 70
9 Waldhof Mannheim 38 38.3 35.4 +2.9 52
10 FC Saarbrücken 38 41.1 40.6 +0.5 44
11 SSV Jahn Regensburg 38 40.8 40.6 +0.2 49
12 SV Wehen 38 37.7 38.1 -0.4 53
13 FC Viktoria Köln 38 33.4 34.1 -0.7 51
14 Stuttgart II 38 37.1 41.0 -3.9 46
15 SSV Ulm 1846 38 37.4 42.3 -4.9 33
16 Alemannia Aachen 38 37.1 42.9 -5.8 64
17 Hoffenheim II 38 44.5 51.1 -6.6 43
18 Erzgebirge Aue 38 33.6 46.8 -13.2 34
19 Havelse 38 31.9 50.5 -18.6 35
20 FC Schweinfurt 05 38 32.9 55.1 -22.2 21