Predictions / Football / Germany. 3. Liga / SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Energie Cottbus

Prediction Audit: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Energie Cottbus Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SSV Jahn Regensburg SSV Jahn Regensburg
May 16, 2026 - 11:30
0 1.69
1 1.62
xG Accuracy: 53%
Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus

The model missed the final outcome (Energie Cottbus win 0–1).

The model had projected SSV Jahn Regensburg at 38.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 SSV Jahn Regensburg Energie Cottbus ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 0-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Energie Cottbus higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Energie Cottbus -21.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
SSV Jahn Regensburg 38.7% 22.0% +16.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.6% 21.1% +4.4 pp Aligned
Energie Cottbus 35.7% 56.9% -21.1 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Energie Cottbus's win probability at 56.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.7%, a difference of 21.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Energie Cottbus win 0–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned SSV Jahn Regensburg; match finished Energie Cottbus

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on SSV Jahn Regensburg by 21.1 percentage points (59.8% vs model 38.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 38.7% · Draw 25.6% · Energie Cottbus 35.7%
    • xG · SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.69 — Energie Cottbus 1.62
  2. May 16, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · SSV Jahn Regensburg 4.27 · Draw 4.44 · Energie Cottbus 1.65
    • Implied 1X2 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 22.0% · Draw 21.1% · Energie Cottbus 56.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · SSV Jahn Regensburg 4.27 · Draw 4.44 · Energie Cottbus 1.65
    • Implied 1X2 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 22.0% · Draw 21.1% · Energie Cottbus 56.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Energie Cottbus win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 16:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1475768

Closing Odds 1.65
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Energie Cottbus win · SSV Jahn Regensburg 0–1 Energie Cottbus
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Liga
  • Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Energie Cottbus
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.7% · Draw 25.6% · Away 35.7%
  • xG (showing): SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.69 — Energie Cottbus 1.62 (total xG ≈ 3.31)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 35.7% · Over 2.5 64.3%); BTTS Yes (Yes 66.7% · No 33.3%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 66.7% · No 33.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.0%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Liga 3. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 VfL Osnabrück 38 24 8 6 80
2 Energie Cottbus 38 21 9 8 72
3 Rot-Weiß Essen 38 20 10 8 70
4 MSV Duisburg 38 19 11 8 68
5 Hansa Rostock 38 18 13 7 67
6 Verl 38 18 10 10 64
7 Alemannia Aachen 38 19 7 12 64
8 TSV 1860 München 38 15 11 12 56
9 SV Wehen 38 15 8 15 53
10 Waldhof Mannheim 38 15 7 16 52
11 FC Viktoria Köln 38 15 6 17 51
12 FC Ingolstadt 04 38 13 10 15 49
13 SSV Jahn Regensburg 38 14 7 17 49
14 Stuttgart II 38 13 7 18 46
15 FC Saarbrücken 38 10 14 14 44
16 Hoffenheim II 38 12 7 19 43
17 Havelse 38 9 8 21 35
18 Erzgebirge Aue 38 7 13 18 34
19 SSV Ulm 1846 38 9 6 23 33
20 FC Schweinfurt 05 38 5 6 27 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Verl 38 82 48 +34 64
2 Rot-Weiß Essen 38 78 66 +12 70
3 Alemannia Aachen 38 76 57 +19 64
4 Hansa Rostock 38 74 49 +25 67
5 Energie Cottbus 38 72 51 +21 72
6 VfL Osnabrück 38 66 34 +32 80
7 MSV Duisburg 38 66 49 +17 68
8 FC Ingolstadt 04 38 65 56 +9 49
9 Hoffenheim II 38 65 71 -6 43
10 Waldhof Mannheim 38 59 72 -13 52
11 Stuttgart II 38 57 69 -12 46
12 Havelse 38 57 89 -32 35
13 SV Wehen 38 54 52 +2 53
14 TSV 1860 München 38 54 53 +1 56
15 SSV Jahn Regensburg 38 54 58 -4 49
16 FC Viktoria Köln 38 51 53 -2 51
17 FC Saarbrücken 38 51 57 -6 44
18 Erzgebirge Aue 38 51 70 -19 34
19 SSV Ulm 1846 38 49 78 -29 33
20 FC Schweinfurt 05 38 38 87 -49 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Energie Cottbus 38 48.1 34.3 +13.8 72
2 Hansa Rostock 38 49.0 35.6 +13.4 67
3 VfL Osnabrück 38 44.5 31.3 +13.2 80
4 Verl 38 44.0 31.6 +12.4 64
5 MSV Duisburg 38 38.0 30.8 +7.2 68
6 FC Ingolstadt 04 38 47.0 40.4 +6.6 49
7 TSV 1860 München 38 45.8 42.6 +3.2 56
8 Rot-Weiß Essen 38 41.9 38.8 +3.1 70
9 Waldhof Mannheim 38 38.3 35.4 +2.9 52
10 FC Saarbrücken 38 41.1 40.6 +0.5 44
11 SSV Jahn Regensburg 38 40.8 40.6 +0.2 49
12 SV Wehen 38 37.7 38.1 -0.4 53
13 FC Viktoria Köln 38 33.4 34.1 -0.7 51
14 Stuttgart II 38 37.1 41.0 -3.9 46
15 SSV Ulm 1846 38 37.4 42.3 -4.9 33
16 Alemannia Aachen 38 37.1 42.9 -5.8 64
17 Hoffenheim II 38 44.5 51.1 -6.6 43
18 Erzgebirge Aue 38 33.6 46.8 -13.2 34
19 Havelse 38 31.9 50.5 -18.6 35
20 FC Schweinfurt 05 38 32.9 55.1 -22.2 21