Predictions / Football / Germany. 3. Liga / Waldhof Mannheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg

Prediction Audit: Waldhof Mannheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Waldhof Mannheim Waldhof Mannheim
May 09, 2026 - 14:30
1 2.08
0 1.62
xG Accuracy: 48%
SSV Jahn Regensburg SSV Jahn Regensburg

AI correctly predicted the Waldhof Mannheim win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Waldhof Mannheim Waldhof Mannheim ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 1-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Waldhof Mannheim considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Waldhof Mannheim +7.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Waldhof Mannheim 47.5% 40.5% +7.0 pp Model Higher
Draw 23.2% 24.8% -1.6 pp Aligned
SSV Jahn Regensburg 29.2% 34.7% -5.5 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Waldhof Mannheim's win probability at 47.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 40.5%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Waldhof Mannheim win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Waldhof Mannheim.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Waldhof Mannheim attacking xG significantly stronger (2.08 vs 1.62)

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Waldhof Mannheim more conservatively (40.5% vs model 47.5%, 7.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Waldhof Mannheim win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Waldhof Mannheim 47.6% · Draw 23.2% · SSV Jahn Regensburg 29.2%
    • xG · Waldhof Mannheim 2.08 — SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.62
  2. May 09, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Waldhof Mannheim 2.36 · Draw 3.85 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Waldhof Mannheim 40.5% · Draw 24.8% · SSV Jahn Regensburg 34.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Waldhof Mannheim 2.36 · Draw 3.85 · SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.75
    • Implied 1X2 · Waldhof Mannheim 40.5% · Draw 24.8% · SSV Jahn Regensburg 34.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Waldhof Mannheim win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 69/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pass
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (54%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 64/100
Betting Confidence 72/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1484398

Closing Odds 2.36
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Waldhof Mannheim win · Waldhof Mannheim 1–0 SSV Jahn Regensburg
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 3. Liga
  • Fixture: Waldhof Mannheim vs SSV Jahn Regensburg
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 47.6% · Draw 23.2% · Away 29.2%
  • xG (showing): Waldhof Mannheim 2.08 — SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.62 (total xG ≈ 3.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 71.5% · Implied: 64.8% · Probability edge: +6.7 pts · Est. EV: +5.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 71.3% · No 28.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-1 (8.7%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Liga 3. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 VfL Osnabrück 38 24 8 6 80
2 Energie Cottbus 38 21 9 8 72
3 Rot-Weiß Essen 38 20 10 8 70
4 MSV Duisburg 38 19 11 8 68
5 Hansa Rostock 38 18 13 7 67
6 Verl 38 18 10 10 64
7 Alemannia Aachen 38 19 7 12 64
8 TSV 1860 München 38 15 11 12 56
9 SV Wehen 38 15 8 15 53
10 Waldhof Mannheim 38 15 7 16 52
11 FC Viktoria Köln 38 15 6 17 51
12 FC Ingolstadt 04 38 13 10 15 49
13 SSV Jahn Regensburg 38 14 7 17 49
14 Stuttgart II 38 13 7 18 46
15 FC Saarbrücken 38 10 14 14 44
16 Hoffenheim II 38 12 7 19 43
17 Havelse 38 9 8 21 35
18 Erzgebirge Aue 38 7 13 18 34
19 SSV Ulm 1846 38 9 6 23 33
20 FC Schweinfurt 05 38 5 6 27 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Verl 38 82 48 +34 64
2 Rot-Weiß Essen 38 78 66 +12 70
3 Alemannia Aachen 38 76 57 +19 64
4 Hansa Rostock 38 74 49 +25 67
5 Energie Cottbus 38 72 51 +21 72
6 VfL Osnabrück 38 66 34 +32 80
7 MSV Duisburg 38 66 49 +17 68
8 FC Ingolstadt 04 38 65 56 +9 49
9 Hoffenheim II 38 65 71 -6 43
10 Waldhof Mannheim 38 59 72 -13 52
11 Stuttgart II 38 57 69 -12 46
12 Havelse 38 57 89 -32 35
13 SV Wehen 38 54 52 +2 53
14 TSV 1860 München 38 54 53 +1 56
15 SSV Jahn Regensburg 38 54 58 -4 49
16 FC Viktoria Köln 38 51 53 -2 51
17 FC Saarbrücken 38 51 57 -6 44
18 Erzgebirge Aue 38 51 70 -19 34
19 SSV Ulm 1846 38 49 78 -29 33
20 FC Schweinfurt 05 38 38 87 -49 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Energie Cottbus 38 48.1 34.3 +13.8 72
2 Hansa Rostock 38 49.0 35.6 +13.4 67
3 VfL Osnabrück 38 44.5 31.3 +13.2 80
4 Verl 38 44.0 31.6 +12.4 64
5 MSV Duisburg 38 38.0 30.8 +7.2 68
6 FC Ingolstadt 04 38 47.0 40.4 +6.6 49
7 TSV 1860 München 38 45.8 42.6 +3.2 56
8 Rot-Weiß Essen 38 41.9 38.8 +3.1 70
9 Waldhof Mannheim 38 38.3 35.4 +2.9 52
10 FC Saarbrücken 38 41.1 40.6 +0.5 44
11 SSV Jahn Regensburg 38 40.8 40.6 +0.2 49
12 SV Wehen 38 37.7 38.1 -0.4 53
13 FC Viktoria Köln 38 33.4 34.1 -0.7 51
14 Stuttgart II 38 37.1 41.0 -3.9 46
15 SSV Ulm 1846 38 37.4 42.3 -4.9 33
16 Alemannia Aachen 38 37.1 42.9 -5.8 64
17 Hoffenheim II 38 44.5 51.1 -6.6 43
18 Erzgebirge Aue 38 33.6 46.8 -13.2 34
19 Havelse 38 31.9 50.5 -18.6 35
20 FC Schweinfurt 05 38 32.9 55.1 -22.2 21