Predictions / Football / Germany. 3. Liga / Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg

Prediction Audit: Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue
May 08, 2026 - 17:00
0 1.24
0 1.49
xG Accuracy: 47%
MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected MSV Duisburg at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 MSV Duisburg Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices MSV Duisburg higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: MSV Duisburg -17.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Erzgebirge Aue 30.0% 21.4% +8.6 pp Model Higher
Draw 28.6% 19.9% +8.6 pp Model Higher
MSV Duisburg 41.4% 58.6% -17.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates MSV Duisburg's win probability at 58.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 17.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about MSV Duisburg than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned MSV Duisburg; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on MSV Duisburg by 17.2 percentage points (58.6% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Erzgebirge Aue 30.0% · Draw 28.5% · MSV Duisburg 41.5%
    • xG · Erzgebirge Aue 1.24 — MSV Duisburg 1.49
  2. May 09, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Erzgebirge Aue 4.43 · Draw 4.76 · MSV Duisburg 1.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Erzgebirge Aue 21.4% · Draw 19.9% · MSV Duisburg 58.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 11:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Erzgebirge Aue 4.43 · Draw 4.76 · MSV Duisburg 1.62
    • Implied 1X2 · Erzgebirge Aue 21.4% · Draw 19.9% · MSV Duisburg 58.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 08, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 08:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1843369

Closing Odds 1.62
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Erzgebirge Aue 0–0 MSV Duisburg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. Liga
  • Fixture: Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 12:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.0% · Draw 28.5% · Away 41.4%
  • xG (showing): Erzgebirge Aue 1.24 — MSV Duisburg 1.49 (total xG ≈ 2.73)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 48.6% · Over 2.5 51.4%); BTTS No (Yes 56.6% · No 43.4%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 56.6% · No 43.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.0%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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3. Liga 3. Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 VfL Osnabrück 38 24 8 6 80
2 Energie Cottbus 38 21 9 8 72
3 Rot-Weiß Essen 38 20 10 8 70
4 MSV Duisburg 38 19 11 8 68
5 Hansa Rostock 38 18 13 7 67
6 Verl 38 18 10 10 64
7 Alemannia Aachen 38 19 7 12 64
8 TSV 1860 München 38 15 11 12 56
9 SV Wehen 38 15 8 15 53
10 Waldhof Mannheim 38 15 7 16 52
11 FC Viktoria Köln 38 15 6 17 51
12 FC Ingolstadt 04 38 13 10 15 49
13 SSV Jahn Regensburg 38 14 7 17 49
14 Stuttgart II 38 13 7 18 46
15 FC Saarbrücken 38 10 14 14 44
16 Hoffenheim II 38 12 7 19 43
17 Havelse 38 9 8 21 35
18 Erzgebirge Aue 38 7 13 18 34
19 SSV Ulm 1846 38 9 6 23 33
20 FC Schweinfurt 05 38 5 6 27 21
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Verl 38 82 48 +34 64
2 Rot-Weiß Essen 38 78 66 +12 70
3 Alemannia Aachen 38 76 57 +19 64
4 Hansa Rostock 38 74 49 +25 67
5 Energie Cottbus 38 72 51 +21 72
6 VfL Osnabrück 38 66 34 +32 80
7 MSV Duisburg 38 66 49 +17 68
8 FC Ingolstadt 04 38 65 56 +9 49
9 Hoffenheim II 38 65 71 -6 43
10 Waldhof Mannheim 38 59 72 -13 52
11 Stuttgart II 38 57 69 -12 46
12 Havelse 38 57 89 -32 35
13 SV Wehen 38 54 52 +2 53
14 TSV 1860 München 38 54 53 +1 56
15 SSV Jahn Regensburg 38 54 58 -4 49
16 FC Viktoria Köln 38 51 53 -2 51
17 FC Saarbrücken 38 51 57 -6 44
18 Erzgebirge Aue 38 51 70 -19 34
19 SSV Ulm 1846 38 49 78 -29 33
20 FC Schweinfurt 05 38 38 87 -49 21
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Energie Cottbus 38 48.1 34.3 +13.8 72
2 Hansa Rostock 38 49.0 35.6 +13.4 67
3 VfL Osnabrück 38 44.5 31.3 +13.2 80
4 Verl 38 44.0 31.6 +12.4 64
5 MSV Duisburg 38 38.0 30.8 +7.2 68
6 FC Ingolstadt 04 38 47.0 40.4 +6.6 49
7 TSV 1860 München 38 45.8 42.6 +3.2 56
8 Rot-Weiß Essen 38 41.9 38.8 +3.1 70
9 Waldhof Mannheim 38 38.3 35.4 +2.9 52
10 FC Saarbrücken 38 41.1 40.6 +0.5 44
11 SSV Jahn Regensburg 38 40.8 40.6 +0.2 49
12 SV Wehen 38 37.7 38.1 -0.4 53
13 FC Viktoria Köln 38 33.4 34.1 -0.7 51
14 Stuttgart II 38 37.1 41.0 -3.9 46
15 SSV Ulm 1846 38 37.4 42.3 -4.9 33
16 Alemannia Aachen 38 37.1 42.9 -5.8 64
17 Hoffenheim II 38 44.5 51.1 -6.6 43
18 Erzgebirge Aue 38 33.6 46.8 -13.2 34
19 Havelse 38 31.9 50.5 -18.6 35
20 FC Schweinfurt 05 38 32.9 55.1 -22.2 21