Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB II / Fehérvár FC vs Budafoki LC

Prediction Audit: Fehérvár FC vs Budafoki LC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fehérvár FC Fehérvár FC
May 17, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Budafoki LC Budafoki LC

The model missed the final outcome (Budafoki LC win 1–3).

The model had projected Fehérvár FC at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fehérvár FC Budafoki LC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Fehérvár FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Fehérvár FC -9.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Fehérvár FC 41.8% 50.8% -9.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 25.3% +0.4 pp Aligned
Budafoki LC 32.6% 23.9% +8.6 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Fehérvár FC's win probability at 50.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 9.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Budafoki LC win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Fehérvár FC. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Fehérvár FC by 9.0 percentage points (50.8% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Fehérvár FC 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Budafoki LC 32.6%
    • xG · Fehérvár FC 1.45 — Budafoki LC 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Fehérvár FC 1.78 · Draw 3.58 · Budafoki LC 3.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Fehérvár FC 50.8% · Draw 25.3% · Budafoki LC 23.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Fehérvár FC 1.78 · Draw 3.58 · Budafoki LC 3.78
    • Implied 1X2 · Fehérvár FC 50.8% · Draw 25.3% · Budafoki LC 23.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Budafoki LC win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 54/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 07, 2026 · 18:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3205444

Closing Odds 1.78
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Budafoki LC win · Fehérvár FC 1–3 Budafoki LC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: NB II
  • Fixture: Fehérvár FC vs Budafoki LC
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Fehérvár FC 1.45 — Budafoki LC 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS No
  • Model: 55.1% · Implied: 49.3% · Probability edge: +5.8 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.9% · No 55.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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NB II NB II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vasas 30 20 4 6 64
2 Budapest Honved 30 18 5 7 59
3 Kecskeméti TE 30 16 3 11 51
4 Kozarmisleny FC 30 13 9 8 48
5 Mezokovesd-zsory 30 13 7 10 46
6 Csakvar 30 12 10 8 46
7 BVSC 30 12 5 13 41
8 Fehérvár FC 30 10 9 11 39
9 Tiszakecske FC 30 10 9 11 39
10 Szeged 2011 30 9 9 12 36
11 Karcag SE 30 9 8 13 35
12 Ajka 30 10 3 17 33
13 Soroksar 30 8 9 13 33
14 Szentlőrinc SE 30 7 12 11 33
15 Budafoki LC 30 7 8 15 29
16 Bekescsaba 1912 30 6 10 14 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vasas 30 59 26 +33 64
2 Budapest Honved 30 49 26 +23 59
3 Kecskeméti TE 30 49 39 +10 51
4 Csakvar 30 43 37 +6 46
5 Soroksar 30 41 45 -4 33
6 Kozarmisleny FC 30 38 40 -2 48
7 Fehérvár FC 30 37 33 +4 39
8 Mezokovesd-zsory 30 37 34 +3 46
9 Tiszakecske FC 30 37 44 -7 39
10 BVSC 30 36 30 +6 41
11 Szentlőrinc SE 30 35 42 -7 33
12 Budafoki LC 30 33 49 -16 29
13 Szeged 2011 30 29 34 -5 36
14 Karcag SE 30 29 41 -12 35
15 Bekescsaba 1912 30 27 42 -15 28
16 Ajka 30 23 40 -17 33