Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB II / BVSC vs Budapest Honved

Prediction Audit: BVSC vs Budapest Honved Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

BVSC BVSC
May 17, 2026 - 14:30
4 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
Budapest Honved Budapest Honved

AI correctly predicted the BVSC win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 BVSC BVSC ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates BVSC considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: BVSC +18.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
BVSC 41.8% 23.3% +18.5 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 28.6% -2.9 pp Aligned
Budapest Honved 32.6% 48.1% -15.5 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates BVSC's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.3%, a difference of 18.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (BVSC win 4–1).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on BVSC.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced BVSC more conservatively (23.3% vs model 41.8%, 18.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (BVSC win 4–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · BVSC 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Budapest Honved 32.6%
    • xG · BVSC 1.45 — Budapest Honved 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · BVSC 3.88 · Draw 3.16 · Budapest Honved 1.88
    • Implied 1X2 · BVSC 23.3% · Draw 28.6% · Budapest Honved 48.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · BVSC 3.88 · Draw 3.16 · Budapest Honved 1.88
    • Implied 1X2 · BVSC 23.3% · Draw 28.6% · Budapest Honved 48.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 17, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result BVSC win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 2/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1616487

Closing Odds 3.88
AI Fair Odds 2.39
CLV Pending
Final Result BVSC win · BVSC 4–1 Budapest Honved
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: NB II
  • Fixture: BVSC vs Budapest Honved
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): BVSC 1.45 — Budapest Honved 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BVSC
  • Model: 41.8% · Implied: 23.3% · Probability edge: +18.5 pts · Est. EV: +5.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 47.1% · No 52.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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NB II NB II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vasas 30 20 4 6 64
2 Budapest Honved 30 18 5 7 59
3 Kecskeméti TE 30 16 3 11 51
4 Kozarmisleny FC 30 13 9 8 48
5 Mezokovesd-zsory 30 13 7 10 46
6 Csakvar 30 12 10 8 46
7 BVSC 30 12 5 13 41
8 Fehérvár FC 30 10 9 11 39
9 Tiszakecske FC 30 10 9 11 39
10 Szeged 2011 30 9 9 12 36
11 Karcag SE 30 9 8 13 35
12 Ajka 30 10 3 17 33
13 Soroksar 30 8 9 13 33
14 Szentlőrinc SE 30 7 12 11 33
15 Budafoki LC 30 7 8 15 29
16 Bekescsaba 1912 30 6 10 14 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vasas 30 59 26 +33 64
2 Budapest Honved 30 49 26 +23 59
3 Kecskeméti TE 30 49 39 +10 51
4 Csakvar 30 43 37 +6 46
5 Soroksar 30 41 45 -4 33
6 Kozarmisleny FC 30 38 40 -2 48
7 Fehérvár FC 30 37 33 +4 39
8 Mezokovesd-zsory 30 37 34 +3 46
9 Tiszakecske FC 30 37 44 -7 39
10 BVSC 30 36 30 +6 41
11 Szentlőrinc SE 30 35 42 -7 33
12 Budafoki LC 30 33 49 -16 29
13 Szeged 2011 30 29 34 -5 36
14 Karcag SE 30 29 41 -12 35
15 Bekescsaba 1912 30 27 42 -15 28
16 Ajka 30 23 40 -17 33