Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB II / Kecskeméti TE vs Mezokovesd-zsory

Prediction Audit: Kecskeméti TE vs Mezokovesd-zsory Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kecskeméti TE Kecskeméti TE
May 10, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Mezokovesd-zsory Mezokovesd-zsory

AI correctly predicted the Kecskeméti TE win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Kecskeméti TE Kecskeméti TE ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Kecskeméti TE higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Kecskeméti TE -12.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Kecskeméti TE 41.8% 54.2% -12.4 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 25.4% +0.3 pp Aligned
Mezokovesd-zsory 32.6% 20.4% +12.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Kecskeméti TE's win probability at 54.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 12.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Kecskeméti TE win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Kecskeméti TE than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kecskeméti TE higher (54.2% vs model 41.8%, 12.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kecskeméti TE win 2–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Kecskeméti TE 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Mezokovesd-zsory 32.6%
    • xG · Kecskeméti TE 1.45 — Mezokovesd-zsory 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Kecskeméti TE 1.67 · Draw 3.57 · Mezokovesd-zsory 4.43
    • Implied 1X2 · Kecskeméti TE 54.2% · Draw 25.4% · Mezokovesd-zsory 20.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Kecskeméti TE 1.67 · Draw 3.57 · Mezokovesd-zsory 4.43
    • Implied 1X2 · Kecskeméti TE 54.2% · Draw 25.4% · Mezokovesd-zsory 20.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Kecskeméti TE win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 37/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 01:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3016920

Closing Odds 1.67
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Kecskeméti TE win · Kecskeméti TE 2–1 Mezokovesd-zsory
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: NB II
  • Fixture: Kecskeméti TE vs Mezokovesd-zsory
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Kecskeméti TE 1.45 — Mezokovesd-zsory 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 64.5% · Implied: 49.5% · Probability edge: +15.0 pts · Est. EV: +19.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 64.5% · No 35.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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NB II NB II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vasas 30 20 4 6 64
2 Budapest Honved 30 18 5 7 59
3 Kecskeméti TE 30 16 3 11 51
4 Kozarmisleny FC 30 13 9 8 48
5 Mezokovesd-zsory 30 13 7 10 46
6 Csakvar 30 12 10 8 46
7 BVSC 30 12 5 13 41
8 Fehérvár FC 30 10 9 11 39
9 Tiszakecske FC 30 10 9 11 39
10 Szeged 2011 30 9 9 12 36
11 Karcag SE 30 9 8 13 35
12 Ajka 30 10 3 17 33
13 Soroksar 30 8 9 13 33
14 Szentlőrinc SE 30 7 12 11 33
15 Budafoki LC 30 7 8 15 29
16 Bekescsaba 1912 30 6 10 14 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vasas 30 59 26 +33 64
2 Budapest Honved 30 49 26 +23 59
3 Kecskeméti TE 30 49 39 +10 51
4 Csakvar 30 43 37 +6 46
5 Soroksar 30 41 45 -4 33
6 Kozarmisleny FC 30 38 40 -2 48
7 Fehérvár FC 30 37 33 +4 39
8 Mezokovesd-zsory 30 37 34 +3 46
9 Tiszakecske FC 30 37 44 -7 39
10 BVSC 30 36 30 +6 41
11 Szentlőrinc SE 30 35 42 -7 33
12 Budafoki LC 30 33 49 -16 29
13 Szeged 2011 30 29 34 -5 36
14 Karcag SE 30 29 41 -12 35
15 Bekescsaba 1912 30 27 42 -15 28
16 Ajka 30 23 40 -17 33