Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB II / Budapest Honved vs Vasas

Prediction Audit: Budapest Honved vs Vasas Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Budapest Honved Budapest Honved
May 10, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 61%
Vasas Vasas

AI correctly predicted the Budapest Honved win.

The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Budapest Honved Budapest Honved ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Budapest Honved considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Budapest Honved +10.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Budapest Honved 41.8% 30.9% +10.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 29.3% -3.6 pp Aligned
Vasas 32.6% 39.8% -7.2 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Budapest Honved's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 30.9%, a difference of 10.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Budapest Honved win 3–1).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Budapest Honved.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Budapest Honved more conservatively (30.9% vs model 41.8%, 10.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Budapest Honved win 3–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Budapest Honved 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Vasas 32.6%
    • xG · Budapest Honved 1.45 — Vasas 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Budapest Honved 2.96 · Draw 3.12 · Vasas 2.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Budapest Honved 30.9% · Draw 29.3% · Vasas 39.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Budapest Honved 2.96 · Draw 3.12 · Vasas 2.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Budapest Honved 30.9% · Draw 29.3% · Vasas 39.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Budapest Honved win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1541955

Closing Odds 2.96
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Budapest Honved win · Budapest Honved 3–1 Vasas
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: NB II
  • Fixture: Budapest Honved vs Vasas
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Budapest Honved 1.45 — Vasas 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 58.9% · Implied: 52.1% · Probability edge: +6.8 pts · Est. EV: +4.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 58.9% · No 41.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming NB II Matches Track Budapest Honved Next Match Prediction Track Vasas Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Budapest Honved & Vasas!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
NB II NB II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vasas 30 20 4 6 64
2 Budapest Honved 30 18 5 7 59
3 Kecskeméti TE 30 16 3 11 51
4 Kozarmisleny FC 30 13 9 8 48
5 Mezokovesd-zsory 30 13 7 10 46
6 Csakvar 30 12 10 8 46
7 BVSC 30 12 5 13 41
8 Fehérvár FC 30 10 9 11 39
9 Tiszakecske FC 30 10 9 11 39
10 Szeged 2011 30 9 9 12 36
11 Karcag SE 30 9 8 13 35
12 Ajka 30 10 3 17 33
13 Soroksar 30 8 9 13 33
14 Szentlőrinc SE 30 7 12 11 33
15 Budafoki LC 30 7 8 15 29
16 Bekescsaba 1912 30 6 10 14 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vasas 30 59 26 +33 64
2 Budapest Honved 30 49 26 +23 59
3 Kecskeméti TE 30 49 39 +10 51
4 Csakvar 30 43 37 +6 46
5 Soroksar 30 41 45 -4 33
6 Kozarmisleny FC 30 38 40 -2 48
7 Fehérvár FC 30 37 33 +4 39
8 Mezokovesd-zsory 30 37 34 +3 46
9 Tiszakecske FC 30 37 44 -7 39
10 BVSC 30 36 30 +6 41
11 Szentlőrinc SE 30 35 42 -7 33
12 Budafoki LC 30 33 49 -16 29
13 Szeged 2011 30 29 34 -5 36
14 Karcag SE 30 29 41 -12 35
15 Bekescsaba 1912 30 27 42 -15 28
16 Ajka 30 23 40 -17 33