Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB II / Ajka vs Szeged 2011

Prediction Audit: Ajka vs Szeged 2011 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ajka Ajka
May 10, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 42%
Szeged 2011 Szeged 2011

The model missed the final outcome (Szeged 2011 win 0–3).

The model had projected Ajka at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ajka Szeged 2011 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Ajka considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Ajka +7.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ajka 41.8% 34.0% +7.8 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 32.1% -6.4 pp Market Higher
Szeged 2011 32.6% 33.9% -1.3 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Ajka's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.0%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Szeged 2011 win 0–3.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Ajka.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Ajka; match finished Szeged 2011

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Ajka by 7.8 percentage points (34.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ajka 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Szeged 2011 32.6%
    • xG · Ajka 1.45 — Szeged 2011 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ajka 2.66 · Draw 2.82 · Szeged 2011 2.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Ajka 34.0% · Draw 32.1% · Szeged 2011 33.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ajka 2.66 · Draw 2.82 · Szeged 2011 2.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Ajka 34.0% · Draw 32.1% · Szeged 2011 33.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Szeged 2011 win · 0–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 61/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 13:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2018196

Closing Odds 2.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Szeged 2011 win · Ajka 0–3 Szeged 2011
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: NB II
  • Fixture: Ajka vs Szeged 2011
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Ajka 1.45 — Szeged 2011 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 61.2% · Implied: 53.8% · Probability edge: +7.4 pts · Est. EV: +7.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 38.8% · No 61.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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NB II NB II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vasas 30 20 4 6 64
2 Budapest Honved 30 18 5 7 59
3 Kecskeméti TE 30 16 3 11 51
4 Kozarmisleny FC 30 13 9 8 48
5 Mezokovesd-zsory 30 13 7 10 46
6 Csakvar 30 12 10 8 46
7 BVSC 30 12 5 13 41
8 Fehérvár FC 30 10 9 11 39
9 Tiszakecske FC 30 10 9 11 39
10 Szeged 2011 30 9 9 12 36
11 Karcag SE 30 9 8 13 35
12 Ajka 30 10 3 17 33
13 Soroksar 30 8 9 13 33
14 Szentlőrinc SE 30 7 12 11 33
15 Budafoki LC 30 7 8 15 29
16 Bekescsaba 1912 30 6 10 14 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vasas 30 59 26 +33 64
2 Budapest Honved 30 49 26 +23 59
3 Kecskeméti TE 30 49 39 +10 51
4 Csakvar 30 43 37 +6 46
5 Soroksar 30 41 45 -4 33
6 Kozarmisleny FC 30 38 40 -2 48
7 Fehérvár FC 30 37 33 +4 39
8 Mezokovesd-zsory 30 37 34 +3 46
9 Tiszakecske FC 30 37 44 -7 39
10 BVSC 30 36 30 +6 41
11 Szentlőrinc SE 30 35 42 -7 33
12 Budafoki LC 30 33 49 -16 29
13 Szeged 2011 30 29 34 -5 36
14 Karcag SE 30 29 41 -12 35
15 Bekescsaba 1912 30 27 42 -15 28
16 Ajka 30 23 40 -17 33