Predictions / Football / Hungary. NB II / Karcag SE vs Szentlőrinc SE

Prediction Audit: Karcag SE vs Szentlőrinc SE Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Karcag SE Karcag SE
May 03, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Szentlőrinc SE Szentlőrinc SE

The model missed the final outcome (Szentlőrinc SE win 0–1).

The model had projected Karcag SE at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Karcag SE Szentlőrinc SE ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Karcag SE considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Karcag SE +6.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Karcag SE 41.8% 35.3% +6.5 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 26.2% -0.5 pp Aligned
Szentlőrinc SE 32.6% 38.5% -5.9 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Karcag SE's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.3%, a difference of 6.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Szentlőrinc SE win 0–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Karcag SE.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Karcag SE by 6.5 percentage points (35.3% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Karcag SE 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Szentlőrinc SE 32.6%
    • xG · Karcag SE 1.45 — Szentlőrinc SE 1.25
  2. May 03, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Karcag SE 2.56 · Draw 3.45 · Szentlőrinc SE 2.35
    • Implied 1X2 · Karcag SE 35.3% · Draw 26.2% · Szentlőrinc SE 38.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 03, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Karcag SE 2.56 · Draw 3.45 · Szentlőrinc SE 2.35
    • Implied 1X2 · Karcag SE 35.3% · Draw 26.2% · Szentlőrinc SE 38.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 03, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Szentlőrinc SE win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 23/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 02:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2557503

Closing Odds 2.56
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Szentlőrinc SE win · Karcag SE 0–1 Szentlőrinc SE
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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NB II NB II — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Vasas 30 20 4 6 64
2 Budapest Honved 30 18 5 7 59
3 Kecskeméti TE 30 16 3 11 51
4 Kozarmisleny FC 30 13 9 8 48
5 Mezokovesd-zsory 30 13 7 10 46
6 Csakvar 30 12 10 8 46
7 BVSC 30 12 5 13 41
8 Fehérvár FC 30 10 9 11 39
9 Tiszakecske FC 30 10 9 11 39
10 Szeged 2011 30 9 9 12 36
11 Karcag SE 30 9 8 13 35
12 Ajka 30 10 3 17 33
13 Soroksar 30 8 9 13 33
14 Szentlőrinc SE 30 7 12 11 33
15 Budafoki LC 30 7 8 15 29
16 Bekescsaba 1912 30 6 10 14 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Vasas 30 59 26 +33 64
2 Budapest Honved 30 49 26 +23 59
3 Kecskeméti TE 30 49 39 +10 51
4 Csakvar 30 43 37 +6 46
5 Soroksar 30 41 45 -4 33
6 Kozarmisleny FC 30 38 40 -2 48
7 Fehérvár FC 30 37 33 +4 39
8 Mezokovesd-zsory 30 37 34 +3 46
9 Tiszakecske FC 30 37 44 -7 39
10 BVSC 30 36 30 +6 41
11 Szentlőrinc SE 30 35 42 -7 33
12 Budafoki LC 30 33 49 -16 29
13 Szeged 2011 30 29 34 -5 36
14 Karcag SE 30 29 41 -12 35
15 Bekescsaba 1912 30 27 42 -15 28
16 Ajka 30 23 40 -17 33