Predictions / Football / Luxembourg. National Division / F91 Dudelange vs UNA Strassen

Prediction Audit: F91 Dudelange vs UNA Strassen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

F91 Dudelange F91 Dudelange
May 17, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
UNA Strassen UNA Strassen

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected F91 Dudelange at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 F91 Dudelange Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: F91 Dudelange +3.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
F91 Dudelange 41.8% 38.6% +3.1 pp Aligned
Draw 25.7% 28.7% -3.0 pp Aligned
UNA Strassen 32.6% 32.7% -0.1 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned F91 Dudelange; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · F91 Dudelange 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · UNA Strassen 32.6%
    • xG · F91 Dudelange 1.45 — UNA Strassen 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · F91 Dudelange 2.37 · Draw 3.19 · UNA Strassen 2.80
    • Implied 1X2 · F91 Dudelange 38.6% · Draw 28.7% · UNA Strassen 32.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · F91 Dudelange 2.37 · Draw 3.19 · UNA Strassen 2.80
    • Implied 1X2 · F91 Dudelange 38.6% · Draw 28.7% · UNA Strassen 32.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 17, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 84/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1482429

Closing Odds 2.37
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · F91 Dudelange 1–1 UNA Strassen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: National Division
  • Fixture: F91 Dudelange vs UNA Strassen
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): F91 Dudelange 1.45 — UNA Strassen 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 70.4% · Implied: 55.1% · Probability edge: +15.3 pts · Est. EV: +17.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 70.4% · No 29.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.9%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
National Division National Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Atert Bissen 30 20 5 5 65
2 FC Differdange 03 30 19 8 3 65
3 US Mondorf-les-bains 30 19 3 8 60
4 UNA Strassen 30 17 7 6 58
5 F91 Dudelange 30 17 7 6 58
6 AS Jeunesse Esch 30 10 10 10 40
7 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 30 11 7 12 40
8 UN Kaerjeng 97 30 11 5 14 38
9 US Hostert 30 10 6 14 36
10 Victoria Rosport 30 10 5 15 35
11 Progres Niederkorn 30 9 7 14 34
12 Swift Hesperange 30 9 5 16 32
13 Jeunesse Canach 30 9 4 17 31
14 Mamer 30 8 5 17 29
15 Union Titus Petange 30 6 7 17 25
16 Rodange 91 30 6 7 17 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atert Bissen 30 70 27 +43 65
2 FC Differdange 03 30 63 22 +41 65
3 F91 Dudelange 30 59 38 +21 58
4 UNA Strassen 30 57 26 +31 58
5 US Mondorf-les-bains 30 51 24 +27 60
6 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 30 48 50 -2 40
7 Progres Niederkorn 30 44 47 -3 34
8 UN Kaerjeng 97 30 43 48 -5 38
9 AS Jeunesse Esch 30 35 34 +1 40
10 US Hostert 30 35 56 -21 36
11 Victoria Rosport 30 33 50 -17 35
12 Mamer 30 33 59 -26 29
13 Swift Hesperange 30 31 46 -15 32
14 Jeunesse Canach 30 29 44 -15 31
15 Rodange 91 30 28 65 -37 25
16 Union Titus Petange 30 26 49 -23 25