Predictions / Football / Luxembourg. National Division / Union Titus Petange vs F91 Dudelange

Prediction Audit: Union Titus Petange vs F91 Dudelange Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Union Titus Petange Union Titus Petange
May 10, 2026 - 14:00
3 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 46%
F91 Dudelange F91 Dudelange

AI correctly predicted the Union Titus Petange win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Union Titus Petange Union Titus Petange ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-3 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices F91 Dudelange higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: F91 Dudelange -34.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Union Titus Petange 41.8% 15.3% +26.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 17.9% +7.8 pp Model Higher
F91 Dudelange 32.6% 66.8% -34.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates F91 Dudelange's win probability at 66.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 34.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Union Titus Petange win 3–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Union Titus Petange higher (76.0% vs model 41.8%, 34.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Union Titus Petange win 3–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Union Titus Petange 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · F91 Dudelange 32.6%
    • xG · Union Titus Petange 1.45 — F91 Dudelange 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Union Titus Petange 6.05 · Draw 5.19 · F91 Dudelange 1.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Union Titus Petange 15.3% · Draw 17.9% · F91 Dudelange 66.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Union Titus Petange 6.05 · Draw 5.19 · F91 Dudelange 1.39
    • Implied 1X2 · Union Titus Petange 15.3% · Draw 17.9% · F91 Dudelange 66.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Union Titus Petange win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 32/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (34 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 04:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3025137

Closing Odds 1.39
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Union Titus Petange win · Union Titus Petange 3–0 F91 Dudelange
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Union Titus Petange; market prices F91 Dudelange instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Union Titus Petange 1.45 xG vs F91 Dudelange 1.25 → Union Titus Petange 41.8%
  • Market: F91 Dudelange ~15.3% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 45.8% · Over 2.5 54.2%); BTTS No (Yes 47.3% · No 52.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
National Division National Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Atert Bissen 30 20 5 5 65
2 FC Differdange 03 30 19 8 3 65
3 US Mondorf-les-bains 30 19 3 8 60
4 UNA Strassen 30 17 7 6 58
5 F91 Dudelange 30 17 7 6 58
6 AS Jeunesse Esch 30 10 10 10 40
7 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 30 11 7 12 40
8 UN Kaerjeng 97 30 11 5 14 38
9 US Hostert 30 10 6 14 36
10 Victoria Rosport 30 10 5 15 35
11 Progres Niederkorn 30 9 7 14 34
12 Swift Hesperange 30 9 5 16 32
13 Jeunesse Canach 30 9 4 17 31
14 Mamer 30 8 5 17 29
15 Union Titus Petange 30 6 7 17 25
16 Rodange 91 30 6 7 17 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atert Bissen 30 70 27 +43 65
2 FC Differdange 03 30 63 22 +41 65
3 F91 Dudelange 30 59 38 +21 58
4 UNA Strassen 30 57 26 +31 58
5 US Mondorf-les-bains 30 51 24 +27 60
6 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 30 48 50 -2 40
7 Progres Niederkorn 30 44 47 -3 34
8 UN Kaerjeng 97 30 43 48 -5 38
9 AS Jeunesse Esch 30 35 34 +1 40
10 US Hostert 30 35 56 -21 36
11 Victoria Rosport 30 33 50 -17 35
12 Mamer 30 33 59 -26 29
13 Swift Hesperange 30 31 46 -15 32
14 Jeunesse Canach 30 29 44 -15 31
15 Rodange 91 30 28 65 -37 25
16 Union Titus Petange 30 26 49 -23 25