Predictions / Football / Luxembourg. National Division / F91 Dudelange vs Victoria Rosport

Prediction Audit: F91 Dudelange vs Victoria Rosport Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

F91 Dudelange F91 Dudelange
May 03, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 72%
Victoria Rosport Victoria Rosport

The model missed the final outcome (Victoria Rosport win 1–2).

The model had projected F91 Dudelange at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 F91 Dudelange Victoria Rosport ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices F91 Dudelange higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: F91 Dudelange -30.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
F91 Dudelange 41.8% 72.6% -30.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 16.9% +8.8 pp Model Higher
Victoria Rosport 32.6% 10.5% +22.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates F91 Dudelange's win probability at 72.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 30.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Victoria Rosport win 1–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned F91 Dudelange; match finished Victoria Rosport

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on F91 Dudelange by 30.8 percentage points (72.6% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · F91 Dudelange 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Victoria Rosport 32.6%
    • xG · F91 Dudelange 1.45 — Victoria Rosport 1.25
  2. May 03, 2026 · 13:50 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · F91 Dudelange 1.28 · Draw 5.50 · Victoria Rosport 8.86
    • Implied 1X2 · F91 Dudelange 72.6% · Draw 16.9% · Victoria Rosport 10.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 03, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · F91 Dudelange 1.28 · Draw 5.50 · Victoria Rosport 8.86
    • Implied 1X2 · F91 Dudelange 72.6% · Draw 16.9% · Victoria Rosport 10.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 03, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Victoria Rosport win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 34/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (31 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 21:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1642477

Closing Odds 1.28
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Victoria Rosport win · F91 Dudelange 1–2 Victoria Rosport
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Back to Predictions
National Division National Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Atert Bissen 30 20 5 5 65
2 FC Differdange 03 30 19 8 3 65
3 US Mondorf-les-bains 30 19 3 8 60
4 UNA Strassen 30 17 7 6 58
5 F91 Dudelange 30 17 7 6 58
6 AS Jeunesse Esch 30 10 10 10 40
7 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 30 11 7 12 40
8 UN Kaerjeng 97 30 11 5 14 38
9 US Hostert 30 10 6 14 36
10 Victoria Rosport 30 10 5 15 35
11 Progres Niederkorn 30 9 7 14 34
12 Swift Hesperange 30 9 5 16 32
13 Jeunesse Canach 30 9 4 17 31
14 Mamer 30 8 5 17 29
15 Union Titus Petange 30 6 7 17 25
16 Rodange 91 30 6 7 17 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Atert Bissen 30 70 27 +43 65
2 FC Differdange 03 30 63 22 +41 65
3 F91 Dudelange 30 59 38 +21 58
4 UNA Strassen 30 57 26 +31 58
5 US Mondorf-les-bains 30 51 24 +27 60
6 Racing FC Union Luxembourg 30 48 50 -2 40
7 Progres Niederkorn 30 44 47 -3 34
8 UN Kaerjeng 97 30 43 48 -5 38
9 AS Jeunesse Esch 30 35 34 +1 40
10 US Hostert 30 35 56 -21 36
11 Victoria Rosport 30 33 50 -17 35
12 Mamer 30 33 59 -26 29
13 Swift Hesperange 30 31 46 -15 32
14 Jeunesse Canach 30 29 44 -15 31
15 Rodange 91 30 28 65 -37 25
16 Union Titus Petange 30 26 49 -23 25