AI correctly predicted the Jarun win.
The match finished 4–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
B-
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Jarun Jarun ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 4 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Jarun win 4–0).
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Jarun 1.49 — Croatia Zmijavci 1.23
-
Mar 07, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Jarun win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Jarun win · Jarun 4–0 Croatia Zmijavci
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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First NL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rudes | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 |
| 2 | Sesvete | 23 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 41 |
| 3 | HNK Cibalia | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 38 |
| 4 | Dugopolje | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 5 | Karlovac 1919 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 33 |
| 6 | Dubrava Zagreb | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 33 |
| 7 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 28 |
| 8 | Orijent 1919 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 27 |
| 9 | Jarun | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |
| 10 | Hrvace | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 24 |
| 11 | Opatija | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 22 |
| 12 | Croatia Zmijavci | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Cibalia | 23 | 30 | 21 | +9 | 38 |
| 2 | Karlovac 1919 | 23 | 30 | 27 | +3 | 33 |
| 3 | Rudes | 23 | 29 | 19 | +10 | 45 |
| 4 | Orijent 1919 | 23 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 27 |
| 5 | Jarun | 22 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 25 |
| 6 | Sesvete | 23 | 26 | 14 | +12 | 41 |
| 7 | Dugopolje | 22 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 37 |
| 8 | Dubrava Zagreb | 23 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 33 |
| 9 | Bsk Bijelo Brdo | 23 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 28 |
| 10 | Hrvace | 23 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 24 |
| 11 | Croatia Zmijavci | 23 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 21 |
| 12 | Opatija | 23 | 14 | 30 | -16 | 22 |
