Prediction Audit: Club Guarani vs Sportivo Ameliano Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Club Guarani

Jul 31, 2025 - 19:00

4 2.03

1 0.66

xG Accuracy: 53%

Sportivo Ameliano

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade —

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 — Over 2.5 (5 goals) — N/A
Both Teams To Score — Yes — N/A
1X2 — Club Guarani — N/A
Correct Score Insights — 4-1 — N/A

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.69) — 5 goals materialised
Club Guarani attacking xG significantly stronger (2.03 vs 0.66)

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Club Guarani 2.03 — Sportivo Ameliano 0.66
Jul 31, 2025 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Club Guarani win · 4–1
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome —

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending
High xG deviation from league baseline (50%+)

Evidence ★★★★★

Strong model lean
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 53/100

Validation Report

Prediction Time: Frozen pre-match snapshot

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Club Guarani win · Club Guarani 4–1 Sportivo Ameliano

Prediction —

Decision Grade —

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Division Profesional - Clausura — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Cerro Porteno	22	13	7	2	46
2	Club Guarani	22	14	3	5	45
3	Nacional Asuncion	22	9	8	5	35
4	Sportivo Trinidense	22	8	9	5	33
5	2 de Mayo	22	9	6	7	33
6	Deportivo Recoleta	22	9	5	8	32
7	Libertad Asuncion	22	6	8	8	26
8	Olimpia	22	6	8	8	26
9	Sportivo Luqueno	22	7	4	11	25
10	General Caballero	22	6	6	10	24
11	Sportivo Ameliano	22	5	4	13	19
12	Atlético Tembetary	22	3	6	13	15

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Club Guarani	22	44	20	+24	45
2	Deportivo Recoleta	22	35	30	+5	32
3	Cerro Porteno	22	33	18	+15	46
4	Olimpia	22	33	38	-5	26
5	2 de Mayo	22	28	27	+1	33
6	Sportivo Luqueno	22	27	36	-9	25
7	Nacional Asuncion	22	26	17	+9	35
8	Libertad Asuncion	22	26	24	+2	26
9	Sportivo Trinidense	22	25	21	+4	33
10	General Caballero	22	22	33	-11	24
11	Sportivo Ameliano	22	22	40	-18	19
12	Atlético Tembetary	22	20	37	-17	15

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Cerro Porteno	22	35.3	18.3	+17.0	46
2	Olimpia	22	37.1	29.2	+7.9	26
3	Libertad Asuncion	22	26.6	20.5	+6.1	26
4	Club Guarani	22	27.3	22.1	+5.2	45
5	Nacional Asuncion	22	21.1	18.3	+2.8	35
6	Sportivo Trinidense	22	27.9	25.5	+2.4	33
7	2 de Mayo	22	27.2	24.9	+2.3	33
8	Sportivo Ameliano	22	21.1	27.2	-6.1	19
9	General Caballero	22	23.8	32.0	-8.2	24
10	Sportivo Luqueno	22	26.5	35.8	-9.3	25
11	Deportivo Recoleta	22	25.6	34.9	-9.3	32
12	Atlético Tembetary	22	22.8	33.4	-10.6	15