Predictions / Football / Spain. La Liga / Getafe vs Osasuna

Prediction Audit: Getafe vs Osasuna Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Getafe Getafe
May 23, 2026 - 19:00
1 1.11
0 0.92
xG Accuracy: 75%
Osasuna Osasuna

AI correctly predicted the Getafe win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Getafe Getafe ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.03, 1 goals)
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Getafe win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 24, 2026 · 19:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Getafe 1.11 — Osasuna 0.92
  2. May 23, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Getafe win · 1–0
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 18:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1626617

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Getafe win · Getafe 1–0 Osasuna
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: La Liga
  • Fixture: Getafe vs Osasuna
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-24 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 33.9% · Away 28.1%
  • xG (showing): Getafe 1.11 — Osasuna 0.92 (total xG ≈ 2.03)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 33.1% · Implied: 31.6% · Probability edge: +1.5 pts · Est. EV: +6.2%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 42.1% · No 57.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (14.6%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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La Liga La Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Barcelona 38 31 1 6 94
2 Real Madrid 38 27 5 6 86
3 Villarreal 38 22 6 10 72
4 Atletico Madrid 38 21 6 11 69
5 Real Betis 38 15 15 8 60
6 Celta Vigo 38 14 12 12 54
7 Getafe 38 15 6 17 51
8 Rayo Vallecano 38 12 14 12 50
9 Valencia 38 13 10 15 49
10 Real Sociedad 38 11 13 14 46
11 Espanyol 38 12 10 16 46
12 Athletic Club 38 13 6 19 45
13 Sevilla 38 12 7 19 43
14 Alaves 38 11 10 17 43
15 Elche 38 10 13 15 43
16 Levante 38 11 9 18 42
17 Osasuna 38 11 9 18 42
18 Mallorca 38 11 9 18 42
19 Girona 38 9 14 15 41
20 Oviedo 38 6 11 21 29
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona 38 95 36 +59 94
2 Real Madrid 38 77 35 +42 86
3 Villarreal 38 72 46 +26 72
4 Atletico Madrid 38 62 44 +18 69
5 Real Betis 38 59 48 +11 60
6 Real Sociedad 38 59 61 -2 46
7 Celta Vigo 38 53 48 +5 54
8 Elche 38 49 57 -8 43
9 Mallorca 38 47 57 -10 42
10 Levante 38 47 61 -14 42
11 Valencia 38 46 55 -9 49
12 Sevilla 38 46 60 -14 43
13 Osasuna 38 44 50 -6 42
14 Alaves 38 44 56 -12 43
15 Espanyol 38 43 55 -12 46
16 Athletic Club 38 43 58 -15 45
17 Rayo Vallecano 38 41 44 -3 50
18 Girona 38 39 55 -16 41
19 Getafe 38 32 38 -6 51
20 Oviedo 38 26 60 -34 29
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Barcelona 38 86.7 45.6 +41.1 94
2 Real Madrid 38 74.8 40.1 +34.7 86
3 Villarreal 38 57.8 45.0 +12.8 72
4 Atletico Madrid 38 58.0 48.5 +9.5 69
5 Real Betis 38 54.7 45.5 +9.2 60
6 Athletic Club 38 50.3 42.1 +8.2 45
7 Valencia 38 49.3 46.3 +3.0 49
8 Rayo Vallecano 38 50.1 48.0 +2.1 50
9 Celta Vigo 38 49.7 49.4 +0.3 54
10 Alaves 38 46.1 47.4 -1.3 43
11 Osasuna 38 45.5 49.1 -3.6 42
12 Real Sociedad 38 50.6 55.7 -5.1 46
13 Espanyol 38 48.4 53.8 -5.4 46
14 Levante 38 51.5 59.3 -7.8 42
15 Girona 38 45.6 55.4 -9.8 41
16 Getafe 38 30.2 40.8 -10.6 51
17 Sevilla 38 38.0 54.0 -16.0 43
18 Mallorca 38 43.1 61.9 -18.8 42
19 Elche 38 40.5 60.1 -19.6 43
20 Oviedo 38 34.3 57.3 -23.0 29
La Liga Spain. La Liga Predictions