Predictions / Football / Austria. Bundesliga / Sturm Graz vs Ried

Prediction Audit: Sturm Graz vs Ried Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sturm Graz Sturm Graz
Feb 08, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.07
0 1.55
xG Accuracy: 64%
Ried Ried

The model missed the final outcome (Sturm Graz win 1–0).

The model had projected Ried at 46.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Ried Sturm Graz ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Ried; match finished Sturm Graz

Market lesson

The full-time result was Sturm Graz win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Sturm Graz 1.07 — Ried 1.55
  2. Feb 08, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Sturm Graz win · 1–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1467935

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds 2.14
CLV Pending
Final Result Sturm Graz win · Sturm Graz 1–0 Ried
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 46.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Bundesliga Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sturm Graz 22 12 2 8 19
2 Lask Linz 23 11 5 7 19
3 Red Bull Salzburg 22 10 7 5 18
4 Austria Vienna 22 11 3 8 18
5 TSV Hartberg 23 8 10 5 17
6 Rapid Vienna 22 9 6 7 16
7 SCR Altach 21 7 8 6 29
8 Ried 21 8 4 9 28
9 WSG Wattens 21 7 7 7 28
10 Wolfsberger AC 21 7 5 9 26
11 Grazer AK 21 4 8 9 20
12 FC BW Linz 21 4 2 15 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Red Bull Salzburg 22 42 26 +16 18
2 Austria Vienna 22 34 30 +4 18
3 Sturm Graz 22 33 26 +7 19
4 Lask Linz 23 32 30 +2 19
5 Wolfsberger AC 21 30 29 +1 26
6 TSV Hartberg 23 29 24 +5 17
7 WSG Wattens 21 29 30 -1 28
8 Rapid Vienna 22 26 25 +1 16
9 Ried 21 26 28 -2 28
10 SCR Altach 21 22 21 +1 29
11 Grazer AK 21 22 34 -12 20
12 FC BW Linz 21 19 35 -16 14
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Red Bull Salzburg 22 34.1 27.3 +6.8 18
2 Sturm Graz 22 32.4 25.6 +6.8 19
3 Austria Vienna 22 28.9 23.4 +5.5 18
4 Lask Linz 23 34.6 31.1 +3.5 19
5 WSG Wattens 21 25.6 23.2 +2.4 28
6 Rapid Vienna 22 26.6 24.6 +2.0 16
7 Ried 21 28.2 27.9 +0.3 28
8 SCR Altach 21 22.2 24.3 -2.1 29
9 Grazer AK 21 22.9 26.9 -4.0 20
10 TSV Hartberg 23 22.8 28.1 -5.3 17
11 FC BW Linz 21 21.7 28.6 -6.9 14
12 Wolfsberger AC 21 22.8 31.8 -9.0 26