The model missed the final outcome (Ried win 1–2).
The model had projected Wolfsberger AC at 38.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Wolfsberger AC Ried ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-2 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Ried win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Wolfsberger AC 1.21 — Ried 1.03
-
Oct 18, 2025 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ried win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ried win · Wolfsberger AC 1–2 Ried
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Bundesliga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sturm Graz | 22 | 12 | 2 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | Lask Linz | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 19 |
| 3 | Red Bull Salzburg | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 18 |
| 4 | Austria Vienna | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | TSV Hartberg | 23 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 | Rapid Vienna | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 16 |
| 7 | SCR Altach | 21 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 29 |
| 8 | Ried | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 28 |
| 9 | WSG Wattens | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
| 10 | Wolfsberger AC | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 26 |
| 11 | Grazer AK | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 20 |
| 12 | FC BW Linz | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 14 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red Bull Salzburg | 22 | 42 | 26 | +16 | 18 |
| 2 | Austria Vienna | 22 | 34 | 30 | +4 | 18 |
| 3 | Sturm Graz | 22 | 33 | 26 | +7 | 19 |
| 4 | Lask Linz | 23 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 19 |
| 5 | Wolfsberger AC | 21 | 30 | 29 | +1 | 26 |
| 6 | TSV Hartberg | 23 | 29 | 24 | +5 | 17 |
| 7 | WSG Wattens | 21 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 28 |
| 8 | Rapid Vienna | 22 | 26 | 25 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 | Ried | 21 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 28 |
| 10 | SCR Altach | 21 | 22 | 21 | +1 | 29 |
| 11 | Grazer AK | 21 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 20 |
| 12 | FC BW Linz | 21 | 19 | 35 | -16 | 14 |
| # | TEAM | MP | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Red Bull Salzburg | 22 | 34.1 | 27.3 | +6.8 | 18 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz | 22 | 32.4 | 25.6 | +6.8 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Vienna | 22 | 28.9 | 23.4 | +5.5 | 18 |
| 4 | Lask Linz | 23 | 34.6 | 31.1 | +3.5 | 19 |
| 5 | WSG Wattens | 21 | 25.6 | 23.2 | +2.4 | 28 |
| 6 | Rapid Vienna | 22 | 26.6 | 24.6 | +2.0 | 16 |
| 7 | Ried | 21 | 28.2 | 27.9 | +0.3 | 28 |
| 8 | SCR Altach | 21 | 22.2 | 24.3 | -2.1 | 29 |
| 9 | Grazer AK | 21 | 22.9 | 26.9 | -4.0 | 20 |
| 10 | TSV Hartberg | 23 | 22.8 | 28.1 | -5.3 | 17 |
| 11 | FC BW Linz | 21 | 21.7 | 28.6 | -6.9 | 14 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 21 | 22.8 | 31.8 | -9.0 | 26 |
