Predictions / Football / Israel. Liga Leumit / Maccabi Herzliya vs Hapoel Kfar Shalem

Prediction Audit: Maccabi Herzliya vs Hapoel Kfar Shalem Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Maccabi Herzliya Maccabi Herzliya
Feb 06, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.49
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 70%
Hapoel Kfar Shalem Hapoel Kfar Shalem

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Maccabi Herzliya at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Maccabi Herzliya Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Maccabi Herzliya; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 2–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Maccabi Herzliya 1.49 — Hapoel Kfar Shalem 1.23
  2. Feb 06, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 14:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1605770

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Maccabi Herzliya 2–2 Hapoel Kfar Shalem
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Liga Leumit Liga Leumit — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Maccabi Petah Tikva 30 17 9 4 60
2 Maccabi Herzliya 30 14 8 8 50
3 Hapoel Ramat Gan 30 14 7 9 49
4 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 30 13 9 8 48
5 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 30 13 8 9 47
6 Bnei Yehuda 30 12 8 10 44
7 Kiryat Yam SC 30 13 7 10 42
8 Hapoel Kfar Saba 30 11 8 11 41
9 Hapoel Ra'anana 30 10 8 12 38
10 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 30 10 7 13 37
11 Hapoel Afula 30 9 9 12 36
12 Kafr Qasim 30 8 10 12 34
13 Hapoel Nazareth Illit 30 6 14 10 32
14 Ironi Modi'in 30 8 8 14 32
15 Hapoel Acre 30 6 13 11 31
16 Hapoel Hadera 30 4 11 15 23
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Maccabi Petah Tikva 30 67 32 +35 60
2 Hapoel Kfar Shalem 30 51 47 +4 47
3 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 30 50 50 0 37
4 Hapoel Ramat Gan 30 48 36 +12 49
5 Maccabi Herzliya 30 45 35 +10 50
6 Hapoel Rishon LeZion 30 43 33 +10 48
7 Kiryat Yam SC 30 43 37 +6 42
8 Hapoel Kfar Saba 30 38 39 -1 41
9 Hapoel Nazareth Illit 30 37 45 -8 32
10 Bnei Yehuda 30 34 37 -3 44
11 Kafr Qasim 30 34 39 -5 34
12 Hapoel Acre 30 32 42 -10 31
13 Hapoel Afula 30 32 48 -16 36
14 Hapoel Hadera 30 32 48 -16 23
15 Ironi Modi'in 30 30 41 -11 32
16 Hapoel Ra'anana 30 29 36 -7 38