Predictions / Football / Bosnia. Premijer Liga / Radnik Bijeljina vs Borac Banja Luka

Prediction Audit: Radnik Bijeljina vs Borac Banja Luka Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Radnik Bijeljina Radnik Bijeljina
May 22, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 48%
Borac Banja Luka Borac Banja Luka

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Radnik Bijeljina at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Radnik Bijeljina Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-0 0-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Radnik Bijeljina considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Radnik Bijeljina +17.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Radnik Bijeljina 41.8% 23.9% +17.9 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 30.0% -4.4 pp Aligned
Borac Banja Luka 32.6% 46.1% -13.6 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Radnik Bijeljina's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.9%, a difference of 17.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Radnik Bijeljina.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Radnik Bijeljina; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Radnik Bijeljina by 17.9 percentage points (23.9% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 24, 2026 · 18:31 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Radnik Bijeljina 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Borac Banja Luka 32.6%
    • xG · Radnik Bijeljina 1.45 — Borac Banja Luka 1.25
  2. May 24, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Radnik Bijeljina 3.79 · Draw 3.01 · Borac Banja Luka 1.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Radnik Bijeljina 23.9% · Draw 30.0% · Borac Banja Luka 46.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 24, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Radnik Bijeljina 3.79 · Draw 3.01 · Borac Banja Luka 1.96
    • Implied 1X2 · Radnik Bijeljina 23.9% · Draw 30.0% · Borac Banja Luka 46.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 22, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 3/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 12:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2986717

Closing Odds 3.79
AI Fair Odds 2.39
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Radnik Bijeljina 0–0 Borac Banja Luka
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premijer Liga
  • Fixture: Radnik Bijeljina vs Borac Banja Luka
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-24 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Radnik Bijeljina 1.45 — Borac Banja Luka 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 57.1% · Implied: 49.9% · Probability edge: +7.2 pts · Est. EV: +7.3%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 42.9% · No 57.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (15.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Premijer Liga Premijer Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Banja Luka 36 27 5 4 86
2 Zrinjski 36 21 8 7 71
3 FK Sarajevo 36 19 8 9 65
4 Velež 36 14 9 13 51
5 Siroki Brijeg 36 11 12 13 45
6 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 36 10 12 14 42
7 Radnik Bijeljina 36 8 11 17 35
8 Sloga Doboj 36 8 10 18 34
9 Posušje 36 8 10 18 34
10 Rudar Prijedor 36 7 9 20 30
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Borac Banja Luka 36 76 20 +56 86
2 FK Sarajevo 36 54 37 +17 65
3 Zrinjski 36 48 25 +23 71
4 Siroki Brijeg 36 37 48 -11 45
5 Velež 36 36 35 +1 51
6 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 36 34 37 -3 42
7 Rudar Prijedor 36 31 55 -24 30
8 Radnik Bijeljina 36 27 45 -18 35
9 Posušje 36 25 41 -16 34
10 Sloga Doboj 36 21 46 -25 34