Predictions / Football / Bosnia. Premijer Liga / Sloga Doboj vs Radnik Bijeljina

Prediction Audit: Sloga Doboj vs Radnik Bijeljina Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sloga Doboj Sloga Doboj
May 16, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.45
0 1.25
xG Accuracy: 48%
Radnik Bijeljina Radnik Bijeljina

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Sloga Doboj at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sloga Doboj Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 0-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sloga Doboj higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sloga Doboj -17.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sloga Doboj 41.8% 59.0% -17.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 23.1% +2.5 pp Aligned
Radnik Bijeljina 32.6% 17.9% +14.6 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Sloga Doboj's win probability at 59.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 17.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sloga Doboj than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Sloga Doboj; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sloga Doboj by 17.2 percentage points (59.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sloga Doboj 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Radnik Bijeljina 32.6%
    • xG · Sloga Doboj 1.45 — Radnik Bijeljina 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sloga Doboj 1.53 · Draw 3.90 · Radnik Bijeljina 5.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Sloga Doboj 59.0% · Draw 23.1% · Radnik Bijeljina 17.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sloga Doboj 1.53 · Draw 3.90 · Radnik Bijeljina 5.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Sloga Doboj 59.0% · Draw 23.1% · Radnik Bijeljina 17.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (17 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 14/100
Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 12:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2011207

Closing Odds 1.53
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sloga Doboj 0–0 Radnik Bijeljina
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Premijer Liga
  • Fixture: Sloga Doboj vs Radnik Bijeljina
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Sloga Doboj 1.45 — Radnik Bijeljina 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 67.7% · Over 2.5 32.3%); BTTS No (Yes 19.1% · No 80.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 19.1% · No 80.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (14.9%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Premijer Liga Matches Track Sloga Doboj Next Match Prediction Track Radnik Bijeljina Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Sloga Doboj & Radnik Bijeljina!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Premijer Liga Premijer Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Banja Luka 36 27 5 4 86
2 Zrinjski 36 21 8 7 71
3 FK Sarajevo 36 19 8 9 65
4 Velež 36 14 9 13 51
5 Siroki Brijeg 36 11 12 13 45
6 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 36 10 12 14 42
7 Radnik Bijeljina 36 8 11 17 35
8 Sloga Doboj 36 8 10 18 34
9 Posušje 36 8 10 18 34
10 Rudar Prijedor 36 7 9 20 30
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Borac Banja Luka 36 76 20 +56 86
2 FK Sarajevo 36 54 37 +17 65
3 Zrinjski 36 48 25 +23 71
4 Siroki Brijeg 36 37 48 -11 45
5 Velež 36 36 35 +1 51
6 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 36 34 37 -3 42
7 Rudar Prijedor 36 31 55 -24 30
8 Radnik Bijeljina 36 27 45 -18 35
9 Posušje 36 25 41 -16 34
10 Sloga Doboj 36 21 46 -25 34