Predictions / Football / Bosnia. Premijer Liga / Siroki Brijeg vs Borac Banja Luka

Prediction Audit: Siroki Brijeg vs Borac Banja Luka Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Siroki Brijeg Siroki Brijeg
May 10, 2026 - 17:30
0 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 63%
Borac Banja Luka Borac Banja Luka

The model missed the final outcome (Borac Banja Luka win 0–1).

The model had projected Siroki Brijeg at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Siroki Brijeg Borac Banja Luka ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-0 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Siroki Brijeg considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Siroki Brijeg +21.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Siroki Brijeg 41.8% 19.9% +21.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 26.4% -0.7 pp Aligned
Borac Banja Luka 32.6% 53.7% -21.1 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Siroki Brijeg's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 19.9%, a difference of 21.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Borac Banja Luka win 0–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Siroki Brijeg by 21.8 percentage points (20.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Siroki Brijeg 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Borac Banja Luka 32.6%
    • xG · Siroki Brijeg 1.45 — Borac Banja Luka 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Siroki Brijeg 4.50 · Draw 3.40 · Borac Banja Luka 1.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Siroki Brijeg 19.9% · Draw 26.4% · Borac Banja Luka 53.7%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. May 09, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Siroki Brijeg 4.50 · Draw 3.40 · Borac Banja Luka 1.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Siroki Brijeg 19.9% · Draw 26.4% · Borac Banja Luka 53.7%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. May 10, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Borac Banja Luka win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1540435

Closing Odds 4.5
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Borac Banja Luka win · Siroki Brijeg 0–1 Borac Banja Luka
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Premijer Liga
  • Fixture: Siroki Brijeg vs Borac Banja Luka
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Siroki Brijeg 1.45 — Borac Banja Luka 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 62.3% · Implied: 47.0% · Probability edge: +15.3 pts · Est. EV: +24.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 62.3% · No 37.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (14.1%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Premijer Liga Matches Track Siroki Brijeg Next Match Prediction Track Borac Banja Luka Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Siroki Brijeg & Borac Banja Luka!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Premijer Liga Premijer Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Banja Luka 36 27 5 4 86
2 Zrinjski 36 21 8 7 71
3 FK Sarajevo 36 19 8 9 65
4 Velež 36 14 9 13 51
5 Siroki Brijeg 36 11 12 13 45
6 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 36 10 12 14 42
7 Radnik Bijeljina 36 8 11 17 35
8 Sloga Doboj 36 8 10 18 34
9 Posušje 36 8 10 18 34
10 Rudar Prijedor 36 7 9 20 30
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Borac Banja Luka 36 76 20 +56 86
2 FK Sarajevo 36 54 37 +17 65
3 Zrinjski 36 48 25 +23 71
4 Siroki Brijeg 36 37 48 -11 45
5 Velež 36 36 35 +1 51
6 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 36 34 37 -3 42
7 Rudar Prijedor 36 31 55 -24 30
8 Radnik Bijeljina 36 27 45 -18 35
9 Posušje 36 25 41 -16 34
10 Sloga Doboj 36 21 46 -25 34