Predictions / Football / Bosnia. Premijer Liga / Rudar Prijedor vs FK Sarajevo

Prediction Audit: Rudar Prijedor vs FK Sarajevo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rudar Prijedor Rudar Prijedor
May 09, 2026 - 16:30
2 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 40%
FK Sarajevo FK Sarajevo

The model missed the final outcome (FK Sarajevo win 2–4).

The model had projected Rudar Prijedor at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rudar Prijedor FK Sarajevo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-2, 1-0 2-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices FK Sarajevo higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: FK Sarajevo -9.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Rudar Prijedor 41.8% 32.6% +9.2 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 24.9% +0.8 pp Aligned
FK Sarajevo 32.6% 42.5% -9.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates FK Sarajevo's win probability at 42.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was FK Sarajevo win 2–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on FK Sarajevo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 6 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Rudar Prijedor by 9.9 percentage points (51.7% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Rudar Prijedor 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · FK Sarajevo 32.6%
    • xG · Rudar Prijedor 1.45 — FK Sarajevo 1.25
  2. May 09, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Rudar Prijedor 2.71 · Draw 3.55 · FK Sarajevo 2.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Rudar Prijedor 32.6% · Draw 24.9% · FK Sarajevo 42.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Rudar Prijedor 2.71 · Draw 3.55 · FK Sarajevo 2.08
    • Implied 1X2 · Rudar Prijedor 32.6% · Draw 24.9% · FK Sarajevo 42.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FK Sarajevo win · 2–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 09:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2168020

Closing Odds 2.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FK Sarajevo win · Rudar Prijedor 2–4 FK Sarajevo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Premijer Liga
  • Fixture: Rudar Prijedor vs FK Sarajevo
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Rudar Prijedor 1.45 — FK Sarajevo 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 60.2% · Implied: 49.9% · Probability edge: +10.3 pts · Est. EV: +17.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 39.8% · No 60.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (14.0%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Premijer Liga Premijer Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borac Banja Luka 36 27 5 4 86
2 Zrinjski 36 21 8 7 71
3 FK Sarajevo 36 19 8 9 65
4 Velež 36 14 9 13 51
5 Siroki Brijeg 36 11 12 13 45
6 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 36 10 12 14 42
7 Radnik Bijeljina 36 8 11 17 35
8 Sloga Doboj 36 8 10 18 34
9 Posušje 36 8 10 18 34
10 Rudar Prijedor 36 7 9 20 30
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Borac Banja Luka 36 76 20 +56 86
2 FK Sarajevo 36 54 37 +17 65
3 Zrinjski 36 48 25 +23 71
4 Siroki Brijeg 36 37 48 -11 45
5 Velež 36 36 35 +1 51
6 Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 36 34 37 -3 42
7 Rudar Prijedor 36 31 55 -24 30
8 Radnik Bijeljina 36 27 45 -18 35
9 Posušje 36 25 41 -16 34
10 Sloga Doboj 36 21 46 -25 34