Predictions / Football / Germany. 2. Bundesliga / Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg

Prediction Audit: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf
May 10, 2026 - 11:30
3 1.05
1 1.38
xG Accuracy: 53%
SV Elversberg SV Elversberg

The model missed the final outcome (Fortuna Düsseldorf win 3–1).

The model had projected SV Elversberg at 42.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 SV Elversberg Fortuna Düsseldorf ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Draw +5.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Fortuna Düsseldorf 26.9% 29.7% -2.8 pp Aligned
Draw 30.3% 24.9% +5.5 pp Model Higher
SV Elversberg 42.8% 45.4% -2.7 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 30.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.9%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Fortuna Düsseldorf win 3–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on SV Elversberg by 5.5 percentage points (37.3% vs model 42.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 08, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 27.0% · Draw 30.3% · SV Elversberg 42.7%
    • xG · Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.05 — SV Elversberg 1.38
  2. May 08, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.21 · Draw 3.84 · SV Elversberg 2.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 29.7% · Draw 24.9% · SV Elversberg 45.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 08, 2026 · 11:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.21 · Draw 3.84 · SV Elversberg 2.10
    • Implied 1X2 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 29.7% · Draw 24.9% · SV Elversberg 45.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Fortuna Düsseldorf win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 72/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 17:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3061854

Closing Odds 3.84
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Fortuna Düsseldorf win · Fortuna Düsseldorf 3–1 SV Elversberg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 2. Bundesliga
  • Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-08 11:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 27.0% · Draw 30.3% · Away 42.7%
  • xG (showing): Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.05 — SV Elversberg 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.43)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 56.2% · Implied: 35.5% · Probability edge: +20.7 pts · Est. EV: +61.9%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 50.3% · No 49.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Bundesliga 2. Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Schalke 04 34 21 7 6 70
2 SV Elversberg 34 18 8 8 62
3 SC Paderborn 07 34 18 8 8 62
4 Hannover 96 34 16 12 6 60
5 SV Darmstadt 98 34 13 13 8 52
6 1. FC Kaiserslautern 34 16 4 14 52
7 Hertha BSC 34 14 9 11 51
8 1. FC Nürnberg 34 12 10 12 46
9 VfL Bochum 34 11 11 12 44
10 Karlsruher SC 34 12 8 14 44
11 Dynamo Dresden 34 11 8 15 41
12 Holstein Kiel 34 11 8 15 41
13 Arminia Bielefeld 34 10 9 15 39
14 1. FC Magdeburg 34 12 3 19 39
15 Eintracht Braunschweig 34 10 7 17 37
16 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 34 10 7 17 37
17 Fortuna Düsseldorf 34 11 4 19 37
18 Preußen Münster 34 6 12 16 30
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 SV Elversberg 34 64 39 +25 62
2 Hannover 96 34 60 44 +16 60
3 SC Paderborn 07 34 59 45 +14 62
4 SV Darmstadt 98 34 57 45 +12 52
5 Dynamo Dresden 34 54 53 +1 41
6 Arminia Bielefeld 34 53 51 +2 39
7 Karlsruher SC 34 53 64 -11 44
8 1. FC Kaiserslautern 34 52 47 +5 52
9 1. FC Magdeburg 34 52 58 -6 39
10 FC Schalke 04 34 50 31 +19 70
11 VfL Bochum 34 49 47 +2 44
12 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 34 49 68 -19 37
13 Hertha BSC 34 47 44 +3 51
14 1. FC Nürnberg 34 47 45 +2 46
15 Holstein Kiel 34 44 48 -4 41
16 Preußen Münster 34 38 61 -23 30
17 Eintracht Braunschweig 34 36 54 -18 37
18 Fortuna Düsseldorf 34 33 53 -20 37
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FC Schalke 04 34 51.0 30.4 +20.6 70
2 SC Paderborn 07 34 58.1 38.1 +20.0 62
3 Hannover 96 34 55.4 38.5 +16.9 60
4 SV Elversberg 34 54.6 37.8 +16.8 62
5 1. FC Magdeburg 34 52.6 45.9 +6.7 39
6 Arminia Bielefeld 34 50.3 46.2 +4.1 39
7 VfL Bochum 34 51.9 48.6 +3.3 44
8 1. FC Nürnberg 34 46.2 44.2 +2.0 46
9 SV Darmstadt 98 34 52.1 51.8 +0.3 52
10 1. FC Kaiserslautern 34 46.7 47.1 -0.4 52
11 Dynamo Dresden 34 43.2 43.9 -0.7 41
12 Hertha BSC 34 44.7 51.4 -6.7 51
13 Fortuna Düsseldorf 34 40.3 49.4 -9.1 37
14 Eintracht Braunschweig 34 36.7 48.1 -11.4 37
15 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 34 39.4 51.4 -12.0 37
16 Holstein Kiel 34 41.0 53.1 -12.1 41
17 Preußen Münster 34 36.7 55.9 -19.2 30
18 Karlsruher SC 34 42.5 61.9 -19.4 44