Predictions / Football / Germany. Bundesliga / FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin

Prediction Audit: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
May 10, 2026 - 17:30
1 2.62
3 0.88
xG Accuracy: 36%
Union Berlin Union Berlin

The model missed the final outcome (Union Berlin win 1–3).

The model had projected FSV Mainz 05 at 73.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FSV Mainz 05 Union Berlin ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1, 1-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates FSV Mainz 05 considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: FSV Mainz 05 +17.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FSV Mainz 05 73.7% 56.1% +17.6 pp Model Edge
Draw 17.0% 23.5% -6.5 pp Market Higher
Union Berlin 9.3% 20.4% -11.0 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates FSV Mainz 05's win probability at 73.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 56.1%, a difference of 17.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Union Berlin win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on FSV Mainz 05.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.50) — 4 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned FSV Mainz 05; match finished Union Berlin

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FSV Mainz 05 by 17.6 percentage points (56.1% vs model 73.7%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FSV Mainz 05 73.6% · Draw 17.0% · Union Berlin 9.4%
    • xG · FSV Mainz 05 2.62 — Union Berlin 0.88
  2. May 09, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FSV Mainz 05 1.72 · Draw 4.10 · Union Berlin 4.73
    • Implied 1X2 · FSV Mainz 05 56.1% · Draw 23.5% · Union Berlin 20.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FSV Mainz 05 1.72 · Draw 4.10 · Union Berlin 4.73
    • Implied 1X2 · FSV Mainz 05 56.1% · Draw 23.5% · Union Berlin 20.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Union Berlin win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 42/100 · Low
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
  • High xG deviation from league baseline (94%+)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 12/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1781572

Closing Odds 1.72
AI Fair Odds 1.36
CLV Pending
Final Result Union Berlin win · FSV Mainz 05 1–3 Union Berlin
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 73.6%
  • Historical Bucket: 70–75% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Bundesliga
  • Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 13:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 73.6% · Draw 17.0% · Away 9.4%
  • xG (showing): FSV Mainz 05 2.62 — Union Berlin 0.88 (total xG ≈ 3.5)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 67.9% · Implied: 56.0% · Probability edge: +11.9 pts · Est. EV: +18.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.2% · No 44.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 2-0 (10.4%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Bundesliga Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Bayern München 34 28 5 1 89
2 Borussia Dortmund 34 22 7 5 73
3 RB Leipzig 34 20 5 9 65
4 VfB Stuttgart 34 18 8 8 62
5 1899 Hoffenheim 34 18 7 9 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen 34 17 8 9 59
7 SC Freiburg 34 13 8 13 47
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 34 11 11 12 44
9 FC Augsburg 34 12 7 15 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 34 10 10 14 40
11 Union Berlin 34 10 9 15 39
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 34 9 11 14 38
13 Hamburger SV 34 9 11 14 38
14 1.FC Köln 34 7 11 16 32
15 Werder Bremen 34 8 8 18 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg 34 7 8 19 29
17 1. FC Heidenheim 34 6 8 20 26
18 FC St. Pauli 34 6 8 20 26
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bayern München 34 122 36 +86 89
2 VfB Stuttgart 34 71 49 +22 62
3 Borussia Dortmund 34 70 34 +36 73
4 Bayer Leverkusen 34 68 47 +21 59
5 RB Leipzig 34 66 47 +19 65
6 1899 Hoffenheim 34 65 52 +13 61
7 Eintracht Frankfurt 34 61 65 -4 44
8 SC Freiburg 34 51 57 -6 47
9 1.FC Köln 34 49 63 -14 32
10 FC Augsburg 34 45 61 -16 43
11 VfL Wolfsburg 34 45 69 -24 29
12 FSV Mainz 05 34 44 53 -9 40
13 Union Berlin 34 44 58 -14 39
14 Borussia Mönchengladbach 34 42 53 -11 38
15 1. FC Heidenheim 34 41 72 -31 26
16 Hamburger SV 34 40 54 -14 38
17 Werder Bremen 34 37 60 -23 32
18 FC St. Pauli 34 29 60 -31 26
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Bayern München 34 97.2 37.9 +59.3 89
2 Borussia Dortmund 34 63.4 38.9 +24.5 73
3 Bayer Leverkusen 34 64.0 44.8 +19.2 59
4 RB Leipzig 34 66.3 50.2 +16.1 65
5 VfB Stuttgart 34 60.1 49.8 +10.3 62
6 1899 Hoffenheim 34 55.1 51.4 +3.7 61
7 SC Freiburg 34 48.6 47.8 +0.8 47
8 FSV Mainz 05 34 52.9 54.6 -1.7 40
9 1.FC Köln 34 50.9 54.9 -4.0 32
10 Eintracht Frankfurt 34 45.4 50.1 -4.7 44
11 Union Berlin 34 44.9 52.2 -7.3 39
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach 34 42.7 52.5 -9.8 38
13 Werder Bremen 34 40.4 54.3 -13.9 32
14 VfL Wolfsburg 34 47.1 61.8 -14.7 29
15 1. FC Heidenheim 34 47.5 63.4 -15.9 26
16 FC Augsburg 34 45.2 62.6 -17.4 43
17 Hamburger SV 34 38.3 56.9 -18.6 38
18 FC St. Pauli 34 30.5 56.2 -25.7 26
Bundesliga Germany. Bundesliga Predictions