Predictions / Football / Slovenia. 2. SNL / Krka vs Jesenice

Prediction Audit: Krka vs Jesenice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Krka Krka
May 15, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 53%
Jesenice Jesenice

AI correctly predicted the Krka win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Krka Krka ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Krka considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Krka +13.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Krka 41.8% 28.5% +13.3 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 26.4% -0.8 pp Aligned
Jesenice 32.6% 45.1% -12.5 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Krka's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.5%, a difference of 13.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Krka win 3–2).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Krka.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Krka more conservatively (28.5% vs model 41.8%, 13.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Krka win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Krka 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Jesenice 32.6%
    • xG · Krka 1.45 — Jesenice 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Krka 3.12 · Draw 3.36 · Jesenice 1.97
    • Implied 1X2 · Krka 28.5% · Draw 26.4% · Jesenice 45.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Krka 3.12 · Draw 3.36 · Jesenice 1.97
    • Implied 1X2 · Krka 28.5% · Draw 26.4% · Jesenice 45.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 15, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Krka win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 18:28 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1484345

Closing Odds 3.12
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Krka win · Krka 3–2 Jesenice
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 2. SNL
  • Fixture: Krka vs Jesenice
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-17 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Krka 1.45 — Jesenice 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 73.2% · Implied: 44.5% · Probability edge: +28.7 pts · Est. EV: +53.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 26.8% · No 73.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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2. SNL 2. SNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brinje-Grosuplje 30 23 6 1 75
2 Nafta 30 23 6 1 75
3 Triglav 30 20 4 6 64
4 Beltinci 30 18 6 6 60
5 Tabor Sežana 30 15 5 10 50
6 Bistrica 30 13 6 11 45
7 Dravinja 30 10 7 13 37
8 Rudar 30 9 10 11 37
9 Bilje 30 9 7 14 34
10 Dekani 30 8 9 13 33
11 Slovan Ljubljana 30 9 5 16 32
12 Krka 30 6 11 13 29
13 Ilirija 30 6 9 15 27
14 Krško 30 7 5 18 26
15 Gorica 30 4 10 16 22
16 Jesenice 30 4 6 20 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Triglav 30 72 28 +44 64
2 Brinje-Grosuplje 30 70 26 +44 75
3 Nafta 30 65 23 +42 75
4 Beltinci 30 55 25 +30 60
5 Bistrica 30 50 36 +14 45
6 Rudar 30 46 39 +7 37
7 Dekani 30 40 46 -6 33
8 Ilirija 30 38 52 -14 27
9 Tabor Sežana 30 37 33 +4 50
10 Dravinja 30 32 44 -12 37
11 Krka 30 32 51 -19 29
12 Slovan Ljubljana 30 32 52 -20 32
13 Gorica 30 31 45 -14 22
14 Bilje 30 27 47 -20 34
15 Jesenice 30 26 68 -42 18
16 Krško 30 24 62 -38 26
2. SNL Slovenia. 2. SNL Predictions