Predictions / Football / Slovenia. 2. SNL / Beltinci vs Bilje

Prediction Audit: Beltinci vs Bilje Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Beltinci Beltinci
May 16, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
3 1.25
xG Accuracy: 55%
Bilje Bilje

The model missed the final outcome (Bilje win 1–3).

The model had projected Beltinci at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Beltinci Bilje ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 0-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Beltinci higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Beltinci -30.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Beltinci 41.8% 72.0% -30.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.7% 16.8% +8.9 pp Model Higher
Bilje 32.6% 11.2% +21.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Beltinci's win probability at 72.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.8%, a difference of 30.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Bilje win 1–3.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Beltinci by 30.2 percentage points (72.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Beltinci 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Bilje 32.6%
    • xG · Beltinci 1.45 — Bilje 1.25
  2. May 17, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Beltinci 1.23 · Draw 5.28 · Bilje 7.89
    • Implied 1X2 · Beltinci 72.0% · Draw 16.8% · Bilje 11.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Beltinci 1.23 · Draw 5.28 · Bilje 7.89
    • Implied 1X2 · Beltinci 72.0% · Draw 16.8% · Bilje 11.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Bilje win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 34/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (30 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1659749

Closing Odds 1.23
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Bilje win · Beltinci 1–3 Bilje
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Beltinci; market prices Beltinci instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Beltinci 1.45 xG vs Bilje 1.25 → Beltinci 41.8%
  • Market: Beltinci ~72.0% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 53.1% · Over 2.5 46.9%); BTTS No (Yes 45.9% · No 54.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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2. SNL 2. SNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brinje-Grosuplje 30 23 6 1 75
2 Nafta 30 23 6 1 75
3 Triglav 30 20 4 6 64
4 Beltinci 30 18 6 6 60
5 Tabor Sežana 30 15 5 10 50
6 Bistrica 30 13 6 11 45
7 Dravinja 30 10 7 13 37
8 Rudar 30 9 10 11 37
9 Bilje 30 9 7 14 34
10 Dekani 30 8 9 13 33
11 Slovan Ljubljana 30 9 5 16 32
12 Krka 30 6 11 13 29
13 Ilirija 30 6 9 15 27
14 Krško 30 7 5 18 26
15 Gorica 30 4 10 16 22
16 Jesenice 30 4 6 20 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Triglav 30 72 28 +44 64
2 Brinje-Grosuplje 30 70 26 +44 75
3 Nafta 30 65 23 +42 75
4 Beltinci 30 55 25 +30 60
5 Bistrica 30 50 36 +14 45
6 Rudar 30 46 39 +7 37
7 Dekani 30 40 46 -6 33
8 Ilirija 30 38 52 -14 27
9 Tabor Sežana 30 37 33 +4 50
10 Dravinja 30 32 44 -12 37
11 Krka 30 32 51 -19 29
12 Slovan Ljubljana 30 32 52 -20 32
13 Gorica 30 31 45 -14 22
14 Bilje 30 27 47 -20 34
15 Jesenice 30 26 68 -42 18
16 Krško 30 24 62 -38 26
2. SNL Slovenia. 2. SNL Predictions