Predictions / Football / Slovenia. 2. SNL / Krško vs Krka

Prediction Audit: Krško vs Krka Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Krško Krško
May 10, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 32%
Krka Krka

The model missed the final outcome (Krka win 0–4).

The model had projected Krško at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Krško Krka ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-1 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Krško considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Krško +7.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Krško 41.8% 34.3% +7.4 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 30.7% -5.0 pp Aligned
Krka 32.6% 35.0% -2.4 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Krško's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.3%, a difference of 7.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Krka win 0–4.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Krško.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Krško; match finished Krka
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Krško by 7.4 percentage points (34.4% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 10, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Krško 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Krka 32.6%
    • xG · Krško 1.45 — Krka 1.25
  2. May 10, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Krško 2.59 · Draw 2.90 · Krka 2.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Krško 34.3% · Draw 30.7% · Krka 35.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 10, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Krško 2.59 · Draw 2.90 · Krka 2.54
    • Implied 1X2 · Krško 34.3% · Draw 30.7% · Krka 35.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 10, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Krka win · 0–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 28, 2026 · 12:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2192071

Closing Odds 2.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Krka win · Krško 0–4 Krka
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 2. SNL
  • Fixture: Krško vs Krka
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-10 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Krško 1.45 — Krka 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 75.0% · Implied: 46.1% · Probability edge: +28.9 pts · Est. EV: +50.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 25.0% · No 75.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.2%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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2. SNL 2. SNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brinje-Grosuplje 30 23 6 1 75
2 Nafta 30 23 6 1 75
3 Triglav 30 20 4 6 64
4 Beltinci 30 18 6 6 60
5 Tabor Sežana 30 15 5 10 50
6 Bistrica 30 13 6 11 45
7 Dravinja 30 10 7 13 37
8 Rudar 30 9 10 11 37
9 Bilje 30 9 7 14 34
10 Dekani 30 8 9 13 33
11 Slovan Ljubljana 30 9 5 16 32
12 Krka 30 6 11 13 29
13 Ilirija 30 6 9 15 27
14 Krško 30 7 5 18 26
15 Gorica 30 4 10 16 22
16 Jesenice 30 4 6 20 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Triglav 30 72 28 +44 64
2 Brinje-Grosuplje 30 70 26 +44 75
3 Nafta 30 65 23 +42 75
4 Beltinci 30 55 25 +30 60
5 Bistrica 30 50 36 +14 45
6 Rudar 30 46 39 +7 37
7 Dekani 30 40 46 -6 33
8 Ilirija 30 38 52 -14 27
9 Tabor Sežana 30 37 33 +4 50
10 Dravinja 30 32 44 -12 37
11 Krka 30 32 51 -19 29
12 Slovan Ljubljana 30 32 52 -20 32
13 Gorica 30 31 45 -14 22
14 Bilje 30 27 47 -20 34
15 Jesenice 30 26 68 -42 18
16 Krško 30 24 62 -38 26
2. SNL Slovenia. 2. SNL Predictions