Predictions / Football / Slovenia. 2. SNL / Dravinja vs Ilirija

Prediction Audit: Dravinja vs Ilirija Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dravinja Dravinja
May 06, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Ilirija Ilirija

AI correctly predicted the Dravinja win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Dravinja Dravinja ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 2-1, 1-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Dravinja considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Dravinja +5.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dravinja 41.8% 36.5% +5.2 pp Model Higher
Draw 25.7% 28.9% -3.2 pp Aligned
Ilirija 32.6% 34.5% -2.0 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Dravinja's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 36.5%, a difference of 5.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Dravinja win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Dravinja.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Dravinja more conservatively (36.6% vs model 41.8%, 5.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Dravinja win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 07, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dravinja 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Ilirija 32.6%
    • xG · Dravinja 1.45 — Ilirija 1.25
  2. May 07, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dravinja 2.43 · Draw 3.07 · Ilirija 2.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Dravinja 36.5% · Draw 28.9% · Ilirija 34.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 07, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dravinja 2.43 · Draw 3.07 · Ilirija 2.57
    • Implied 1X2 · Dravinja 36.5% · Draw 28.9% · Ilirija 34.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dravinja win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 73/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 22:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1651204

Closing Odds 2.43
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dravinja win · Dravinja 2–1 Ilirija
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 2. SNL
  • Fixture: Dravinja vs Ilirija
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-07 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Dravinja 1.45 — Ilirija 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 54.2% · Implied: 49.4% · Probability edge: +4.8 pts · Est. EV: +4.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 55.3% · No 44.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.7%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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2. SNL 2. SNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brinje-Grosuplje 30 23 6 1 75
2 Nafta 30 23 6 1 75
3 Triglav 30 20 4 6 64
4 Beltinci 30 18 6 6 60
5 Tabor Sežana 30 15 5 10 50
6 Bistrica 30 13 6 11 45
7 Dravinja 30 10 7 13 37
8 Rudar 30 9 10 11 37
9 Bilje 30 9 7 14 34
10 Dekani 30 8 9 13 33
11 Slovan Ljubljana 30 9 5 16 32
12 Krka 30 6 11 13 29
13 Ilirija 30 6 9 15 27
14 Krško 30 7 5 18 26
15 Gorica 30 4 10 16 22
16 Jesenice 30 4 6 20 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Triglav 30 72 28 +44 64
2 Brinje-Grosuplje 30 70 26 +44 75
3 Nafta 30 65 23 +42 75
4 Beltinci 30 55 25 +30 60
5 Bistrica 30 50 36 +14 45
6 Rudar 30 46 39 +7 37
7 Dekani 30 40 46 -6 33
8 Ilirija 30 38 52 -14 27
9 Tabor Sežana 30 37 33 +4 50
10 Dravinja 30 32 44 -12 37
11 Krka 30 32 51 -19 29
12 Slovan Ljubljana 30 32 52 -20 32
13 Gorica 30 31 45 -14 22
14 Bilje 30 27 47 -20 34
15 Jesenice 30 26 68 -42 18
16 Krško 30 24 62 -38 26
2. SNL Slovenia. 2. SNL Predictions