Predictions / Football / Slovenia. 2. SNL / Krško vs Slovan Ljubljana

Prediction Audit: Krško vs Slovan Ljubljana Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Krško Krško
Apr 30, 2026 - 15:30
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Slovan Ljubljana Slovan Ljubljana

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Krško at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Krško Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Krško considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Krško +10.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Krško 41.8% 31.1% +10.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 27.6% -2.0 pp Aligned
Slovan Ljubljana 32.6% 41.3% -8.7 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Krško's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.1%, a difference of 10.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Krško.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Krško; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Krško by 10.7 percentage points (31.1% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Krško 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Slovan Ljubljana 32.6%
    • xG · Krško 1.45 — Slovan Ljubljana 1.25
  2. May 03, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Krško 2.88 · Draw 3.24 · Slovan Ljubljana 2.17
    • Implied 1X2 · Krško 31.1% · Draw 27.6% · Slovan Ljubljana 41.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 03, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Krško 2.88 · Draw 3.24 · Slovan Ljubljana 2.17
    • Implied 1X2 · Krško 31.1% · Draw 27.6% · Slovan Ljubljana 41.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Apr 30, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 16/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 31, 2026 · 08:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2589491

Closing Odds 2.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Krško 1–1 Slovan Ljubljana
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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2. SNL 2. SNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Brinje-Grosuplje 30 23 6 1 75
2 Nafta 30 23 6 1 75
3 Triglav 30 20 4 6 64
4 Beltinci 30 18 6 6 60
5 Tabor Sežana 30 15 5 10 50
6 Bistrica 30 13 6 11 45
7 Dravinja 30 10 7 13 37
8 Rudar 30 9 10 11 37
9 Bilje 30 9 7 14 34
10 Dekani 30 8 9 13 33
11 Slovan Ljubljana 30 9 5 16 32
12 Krka 30 6 11 13 29
13 Ilirija 30 6 9 15 27
14 Krško 30 7 5 18 26
15 Gorica 30 4 10 16 22
16 Jesenice 30 4 6 20 18
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Triglav 30 72 28 +44 64
2 Brinje-Grosuplje 30 70 26 +44 75
3 Nafta 30 65 23 +42 75
4 Beltinci 30 55 25 +30 60
5 Bistrica 30 50 36 +14 45
6 Rudar 30 46 39 +7 37
7 Dekani 30 40 46 -6 33
8 Ilirija 30 38 52 -14 27
9 Tabor Sežana 30 37 33 +4 50
10 Dravinja 30 32 44 -12 37
11 Krka 30 32 51 -19 29
12 Slovan Ljubljana 30 32 52 -20 32
13 Gorica 30 31 45 -14 22
14 Bilje 30 27 47 -20 34
15 Jesenice 30 26 68 -42 18
16 Krško 30 24 62 -38 26
2. SNL Slovenia. 2. SNL Predictions