The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Gorica at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Gorica Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Gorica; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Gorica 1.45 — Nafta 1.25
-
Mar 21, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Gorica 1–1 Nafta
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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2. SNL — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 75 |
| 2 | Nafta | 30 | 23 | 6 | 1 | 75 |
| 3 | Triglav | 30 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 64 |
| 4 | Beltinci | 30 | 18 | 6 | 6 | 60 |
| 5 | Tabor Sežana | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 50 |
| 6 | Bistrica | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 45 |
| 7 | Dravinja | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 37 |
| 8 | Rudar | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 37 |
| 9 | Bilje | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 34 |
| 10 | Dekani | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 33 |
| 11 | Slovan Ljubljana | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 32 |
| 12 | Krka | 30 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 29 |
| 13 | Ilirija | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 27 |
| 14 | Krško | 30 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 26 |
| 15 | Gorica | 30 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 22 |
| 16 | Jesenice | 30 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 18 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Triglav | 30 | 72 | 28 | +44 | 64 |
| 2 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 30 | 70 | 26 | +44 | 75 |
| 3 | Nafta | 30 | 65 | 23 | +42 | 75 |
| 4 | Beltinci | 30 | 55 | 25 | +30 | 60 |
| 5 | Bistrica | 30 | 50 | 36 | +14 | 45 |
| 6 | Rudar | 30 | 46 | 39 | +7 | 37 |
| 7 | Dekani | 30 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 33 |
| 8 | Ilirija | 30 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 27 |
| 9 | Tabor Sežana | 30 | 37 | 33 | +4 | 50 |
| 10 | Dravinja | 30 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 37 |
| 11 | Krka | 30 | 32 | 51 | -19 | 29 |
| 12 | Slovan Ljubljana | 30 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 32 |
| 13 | Gorica | 30 | 31 | 45 | -14 | 22 |
| 14 | Bilje | 30 | 27 | 47 | -20 | 34 |
| 15 | Jesenice | 30 | 26 | 68 | -42 | 18 |
| 16 | Krško | 30 | 24 | 62 | -38 | 26 |
