Predictions / Football / Northern-Ireland. Championship / Institute vs Limavady United

Prediction Audit: Institute vs Limavady United Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Institute Institute
Feb 14, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.49
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 71%
Limavady United Limavady United

The model missed the final outcome (Limavady United win 1–2).

The model had projected Institute at 43.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Institute Limavady United ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Institute; match finished Limavady United

Market lesson

The full-time result was Limavady United win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Institute 1.49 — Limavady United 1.23
  2. Feb 14, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Limavady United win · 1–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1463726

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Limavady United win · Institute 1–2 Limavady United
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Championship Championship — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Limavady United 33 21 8 4 71
2 Annagh United 33 22 5 6 71
3 H&W Welders 33 17 8 8 59
4 Newington Youth 33 15 6 12 51
5 Loughgall 33 13 12 8 51
6 Queen's University 33 12 11 10 47
7 Institute 33 13 7 13 46
8 Ards 33 12 7 14 43
9 Warrenpoint Town 33 10 6 17 36
10 Ballinamallard United 33 8 10 15 34
11 Dundela 33 3 11 19 20
12 Armagh City 33 4 5 24 17
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 H&W Welders 33 77 41 +36 59
2 Newington Youth 33 69 52 +17 51
3 Limavady United 33 61 32 +29 71
4 Annagh United 33 54 27 +27 71
5 Ards 33 50 46 +4 43
6 Institute 33 47 43 +4 46
7 Loughgall 33 46 34 +12 51
8 Warrenpoint Town 33 44 50 -6 36
9 Queen's University 33 43 42 +1 47
10 Dundela 33 37 73 -36 20
11 Ballinamallard United 33 36 52 -16 34
12 Armagh City 33 28 100 -72 17
Championship Northern-Ireland. Championship Predictions