Predictions / Football / Northern-Ireland. Premiership / Dungannon Swifts vs Ballymena United

Prediction Audit: Dungannon Swifts vs Ballymena United Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dungannon Swifts Dungannon Swifts
Jan 17, 2026 - 15:00
2 0.56
0 0.50
xG Accuracy: 59%
Ballymena United Ballymena United

The model missed the final outcome (Dungannon Swifts win 2–0).

The model had projected Draw at 47.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Draw Dungannon Swifts ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.06, 2 goals)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Draw; match finished Dungannon Swifts

Market lesson

The full-time result was Dungannon Swifts win 2–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Dungannon Swifts 0.56 — Ballymena United 0.50
  2. Jan 17, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Dungannon Swifts win · 2–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 12:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3047728

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds 2.1
CLV Pending
Final Result Dungannon Swifts win · Dungannon Swifts 2–0 Ballymena United
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 47.6%
  • Historical Bucket: 45–50% — Building sample

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Premiership Premiership — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Larne 33 22 7 4 73
2 Glentoran 33 21 6 6 69
3 Coleraine FC 33 20 5 8 65
4 Linfield 33 18 8 7 62
5 Cliftonville FC 33 13 8 12 47
6 Dungannon Swifts 33 15 1 17 46
7 Carrick Rangers 33 12 7 14 43
8 Bangor 33 10 6 17 36
9 Portadown 33 11 3 19 36
10 Ballymena United 33 9 7 17 34
11 Crusaders FC 33 7 5 21 26
12 Glenavon FC 33 8 1 24 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Glentoran 33 63 30 +33 69
2 Coleraine FC 33 62 31 +31 65
3 Larne 33 60 22 +38 73
4 Linfield 33 56 24 +32 62
5 Cliftonville FC 33 49 48 +1 47
6 Carrick Rangers 33 49 51 -2 43
7 Dungannon Swifts 33 40 58 -18 46
8 Ballymena United 33 39 50 -11 34
9 Bangor 33 38 57 -19 36
10 Crusaders FC 33 38 72 -34 26
11 Portadown 33 36 57 -21 36
12 Glenavon FC 33 33 63 -30 25
Premiership Northern-Ireland. Premiership Predictions