Predictions / Football / Serbia. Super Liga / Novi Pazar vs TSC Backa Topola

Prediction Audit: Novi Pazar vs TSC Backa Topola Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Novi Pazar Novi Pazar
Feb 28, 2026 - 12:00
2 1.22
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 56%
TSC Backa Topola TSC Backa Topola

The model missed the final outcome (Novi Pazar win 2–0).

The model had projected TSC Backa Topola at 37.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 TSC Backa Topola Novi Pazar ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned TSC Backa Topola; match finished Novi Pazar

Market lesson

The full-time result was Novi Pazar win 2–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Novi Pazar 1.22 — TSC Backa Topola 1.34
  2. Feb 28, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Novi Pazar win · 2–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 21:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1642446

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Novi Pazar win · Novi Pazar 2–0 TSC Backa Topola
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Super Liga Super Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 30 24 3 3 75
2 Vojvodina 30 19 5 6 62
3 FK Partizan 30 19 4 7 61
4 Železničar Pančevo 30 15 6 9 51
5 Novi Pazar 30 13 8 9 47
6 OFK Beograd 30 10 10 10 40
7 Cukaricki 30 10 10 10 40
8 Radnik Surdulica 30 10 9 11 39
9 IMT Novi Beograd 30 10 7 13 37
10 Radnicki 1923 30 8 12 10 36
11 TSC Backa Topola 30 8 10 12 34
12 Javor 30 8 10 12 34
13 Radnicki NIS 30 9 6 15 33
14 Mladost Lucani 30 7 11 12 32
15 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 30 4 9 17 21
16 Napredak 30 2 8 20 14
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 30 87 23 +64 75
2 FK Partizan 30 62 39 +23 61
3 Vojvodina 30 55 29 +26 62
4 Železničar Pančevo 30 42 30 +12 51
5 Cukaricki 30 42 43 -1 40
6 OFK Beograd 30 39 39 0 40
7 Novi Pazar 30 38 37 +1 47
8 Radnik Surdulica 30 37 35 +2 39
9 Radnicki NIS 30 36 42 -6 33
10 IMT Novi Beograd 30 35 49 -14 37
11 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 30 34 55 -21 21
12 Radnicki 1923 30 32 37 -5 36
13 Javor 30 29 39 -10 34
14 TSC Backa Topola 30 26 35 -9 34
15 Napredak 30 26 65 -39 14
16 Mladost Lucani 30 23 46 -23 32
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 FK Crvena Zvezda 30 56.3 17.8 +38.5 75
2 FK Partizan 30 35.5 24.3 +11.2 61
3 Vojvodina 30 29.6 22.3 +7.3 62
4 Radnicki 1923 30 29.9 22.8 +7.1 36
5 Novi Pazar 30 28.7 23.5 +5.2 47
6 Radnik Surdulica 30 26.1 22.8 +3.3 39
7 Železničar Pančevo 30 24.4 23.3 +1.1 51
8 Cukaricki 30 25.9 26.5 -0.6 40
9 TSC Backa Topola 30 23.5 25.1 -1.6 34
10 IMT Novi Beograd 30 23.8 27.0 -3.2 37
11 Radnicki NIS 30 21.9 25.6 -3.7 33
12 Javor 30 23.5 32.7 -9.2 34
13 Mladost Lucani 30 18.8 31.3 -12.5 32
14 OFK Beograd 30 22.1 34.8 -12.7 40
15 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 30 18.2 31.9 -13.7 21
16 Napredak 30 21.0 37.5 -16.5 14