Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. Czech Liga / Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha

Prediction Audit: Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hradec Králové Hradec Králové
Sep 14, 2025 - 16:00
2 0.75
1 1.82
xG Accuracy: 57%
Sparta Praha Sparta Praha

The model missed the final outcome (Hradec Králové win 2–1).

The model had projected Sparta Praha at 61.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sparta Praha Hradec Králové ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-3 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.57) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Hradec Králové win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Hradec Králové 0.75 — Sparta Praha 1.82
  2. Sep 14, 2025 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Hradec Králové win · 2–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Strong model lean
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 15:38 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1890271

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hradec Králové win · Hradec Králové 2–1 Sparta Praha
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Czech Liga Czech Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Slavia Praha 30 21 8 1 71
2 Sparta Praha 30 19 6 5 63
3 Plzen 30 15 8 7 53
4 FK Jablonec 30 15 6 9 51
5 Hradec Králové 30 14 7 9 49
6 Slovan Liberec 30 12 10 8 46
7 Sigma Olomouc 30 12 7 11 43
8 Pardubice 30 11 8 11 41
9 Karviná 30 12 3 15 39
10 Bohemians 1905 30 10 6 14 36
11 Mlada Boleslav 30 8 11 11 35
12 Zlin 30 9 7 14 34
13 Teplice 30 6 11 13 29
14 Dukla Praha 30 4 11 15 23
15 Slovácko 30 5 8 17 23
16 Baník Ostrava 30 5 7 18 22
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 30 63 23 +40 71
2 Sparta Praha 30 60 33 +27 63
3 Plzen 30 50 34 +16 53
4 Mlada Boleslav 30 44 52 -8 35
5 Slovan Liberec 30 43 30 +13 46
6 Hradec Králové 30 43 34 +9 49
7 Karviná 30 43 51 -8 39
8 FK Jablonec 30 41 33 +8 51
9 Pardubice 30 39 46 -7 41
10 Zlin 30 37 48 -11 34
11 Sigma Olomouc 30 34 34 0 43
12 Teplice 30 29 38 -9 29
13 Bohemians 1905 30 26 35 -9 36
14 Slovácko 30 26 45 -19 23
15 Baník Ostrava 30 25 45 -20 22
16 Dukla Praha 30 20 42 -22 23
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Slavia Praha 30 58.0 23.3 +34.7 71
2 Sparta Praha 30 45.6 25.5 +20.1 63
3 Plzen 30 48.6 35.1 +13.5 53
4 FK Jablonec 30 34.7 30.8 +3.9 51
5 Bohemians 1905 30 40.2 37.4 +2.8 36
6 Slovan Liberec 30 34.1 31.7 +2.4 46
7 Sigma Olomouc 30 34.6 32.4 +2.2 43
8 Karviná 30 41.7 41.6 +0.1 39
9 Mlada Boleslav 30 32.5 37.3 -4.8 35
10 Pardubice 30 33.0 39.6 -6.6 41
11 Baník Ostrava 30 36.4 44.2 -7.8 22
12 Hradec Králové 30 34.3 42.5 -8.2 49
13 Zlin 30 31.2 41.6 -10.4 34
14 Slovácko 30 34.3 45.0 -10.7 23
15 Teplice 30 25.3 39.5 -14.2 29
16 Dukla Praha 30 23.5 40.3 -16.8 23