Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. FNL / Hanácká vs Zbrojovka Brno

Prediction Audit: Hanácká vs Zbrojovka Brno Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hanácká Hanácká
May 16, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 82%
Zbrojovka Brno Zbrojovka Brno

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Hanácká at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hanácká Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Zbrojovka Brno higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Zbrojovka Brno -22.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hanácká 41.8% 22.5% +19.2 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 22.7% +3.0 pp Aligned
Zbrojovka Brno 32.6% 54.8% -22.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Zbrojovka Brno's win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 22.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Hanácká; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hanácká by 22.2 percentage points (64.0% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hanácká 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Zbrojovka Brno 32.6%
    • xG · Hanácká 1.45 — Zbrojovka Brno 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hanácká 4.11 · Draw 4.08 · Zbrojovka Brno 1.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Hanácká 22.5% · Draw 22.7% · Zbrojovka Brno 54.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Hanácká 4.11 · Draw 4.08 · Zbrojovka Brno 1.69
    • Implied 1X2 · Hanácká 22.5% · Draw 22.7% · Zbrojovka Brno 54.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (22 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 22, 2026 · 20:37 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10385201

Closing Odds 1.69
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Hanácká 1–1 Zbrojovka Brno
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: FNL
  • Fixture: Hanácká vs Zbrojovka Brno
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Hanácká 1.45 — Zbrojovka Brno 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 63.0% · Implied: 54.4% · Probability edge: +8.6 pts · Est. EV: +8.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 63.0% · No 37.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.0%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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FNL FNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Zbrojovka Brno 29 23 4 2 73
2 Táborsko 29 16 5 8 53
3 Líšeň 29 15 7 7 52
4 Ústí nad Labem 29 15 3 11 48
5 Příbram 29 13 6 10 45
6 Baník Ostrava II 29 13 5 11 44
7 Opava 29 11 10 8 43
8 Viktoria Žižkov 29 12 5 12 41
9 Vlašim 29 10 8 11 38
10 Slavia Praha II 29 10 5 14 35
11 České Budějovice 29 10 4 15 34
12 Chrudim 29 8 8 13 32
13 Hanácká 29 9 4 16 31
14 Prostějov 29 5 12 12 27
15 Vysočina Jihlava 29 6 8 15 26
16 Sparta Praha II 29 7 4 18 25
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Zbrojovka Brno 29 58 21 +37 73
2 Ústí nad Labem 29 52 43 +9 48
3 Líšeň 29 49 35 +14 52
4 Táborsko 29 48 31 +17 53
5 Baník Ostrava II 29 44 38 +6 44
6 Opava 29 42 31 +11 43
7 Vlašim 29 39 31 +8 38
8 Slavia Praha II 29 39 45 -6 35
9 Viktoria Žižkov 29 37 50 -13 41
10 Chrudim 29 36 49 -13 32
11 České Budějovice 29 30 39 -9 34
12 Hanácká 29 30 42 -12 31
13 Prostějov 29 30 43 -13 27
14 Příbram 29 29 30 -1 45
15 Vysočina Jihlava 29 29 38 -9 26
16 Sparta Praha II 29 27 53 -26 25