Predictions / Football / Slovenia. 1. SNL / Radomlje vs Mura

Prediction Audit: Radomlje vs Mura Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Radomlje Radomlje
May 22, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.45
2 1.25
xG Accuracy: 53%
Mura Mura

AI correctly predicted the Radomlje win.

The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Radomlje Radomlje ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Radomlje considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Radomlje +13.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Radomlje 41.8% 28.7% +13.1 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 25.9% -0.2 pp Aligned
Mura 32.6% 45.5% -12.9 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Radomlje's win probability at 41.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.7%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Radomlje win 3–2).

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Radomlje.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Radomlje more conservatively (28.7% vs model 41.8%, 13.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Radomlje win 3–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 19:48 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Radomlje 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Mura 32.6%
    • xG · Radomlje 1.45 — Mura 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Radomlje 3.25 · Draw 3.60 · Mura 2.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Radomlje 28.7% · Draw 25.9% · Mura 45.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Radomlje 3.25 · Draw 3.60 · Mura 2.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Radomlje 28.7% · Draw 25.9% · Mura 45.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 22, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Radomlje win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 14:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1607027

Closing Odds 3.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Radomlje win · Radomlje 3–2 Mura
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 1. SNL
  • Fixture: Radomlje vs Mura
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Radomlje 1.45 — Mura 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 55.4% · Implied: 38.7% · Probability edge: +16.7 pts · Est. EV: +38.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.6% · No 55.4%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1. SNL 1. SNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Celje 34 23 5 6 74
2 Koper 34 20 7 7 67
3 Bravo 34 19 5 10 62
4 Olimpija Ljubljana 34 16 7 11 55
5 Maribor 34 15 8 11 53
6 Radomlje 34 13 6 15 45
7 Aluminij 34 10 6 18 36
8 Mura 34 8 7 19 31
9 Primorje 34 6 4 24 22
10 NK Domzale 18 3 3 12 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Celje 34 85 32 +53 74
2 Koper 34 71 43 +28 67
3 Bravo 34 62 51 +11 62
4 Maribor 34 57 43 +14 53
5 Olimpija Ljubljana 34 50 40 +10 55
6 Radomlje 34 50 63 -13 45
7 Aluminij 34 42 61 -19 36
8 Mura 34 35 55 -20 31
9 Primorje 34 31 74 -43 22
10 NK Domzale 18 17 38 -21 12