Predictions / Football / Slovenia. 1. SNL / Primorje vs Celje

Prediction Audit: Primorje vs Celje Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Primorje Primorje
May 22, 2026 - 18:00
0 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 32%
Celje Celje

The model missed the final outcome (Celje win 0–4).

The model had projected Primorje at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Primorje Celje ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-2, 1-2, 0-1, 1-1, 0-3 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Celje higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Celje -32.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Primorje 41.8% 16.1% +25.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 18.9% +6.8 pp Model Higher
Celje 32.6% 65.0% -32.5 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Celje's win probability at 65.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 32.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Celje win 0–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Primorje; match finished Celje

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Primorje by 32.5 percentage points (74.3% vs model 41.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 19:48 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Primorje 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Celje 32.6%
    • xG · Primorje 1.45 — Celje 1.25
  2. May 23, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Primorje 5.74 · Draw 4.89 · Celje 1.42
    • Implied 1X2 · Primorje 16.1% · Draw 18.9% · Celje 65.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Primorje 5.74 · Draw 4.89 · Celje 1.42
    • Implied 1X2 · Primorje 16.1% · Draw 18.9% · Celje 65.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 22, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Celje win · 0–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 33/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (32 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1659065

Closing Odds 1.42
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Celje win · Primorje 0–4 Celje
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Primorje; market prices Celje instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Primorje 1.45 xG vs Celje 1.25 → Primorje 41.8%
  • Market: Celje ~16.1% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 37.0% · Over 2.5 63.0%); BTTS No (Yes 52.3% · No 47.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1. SNL 1. SNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Celje 34 23 5 6 74
2 Koper 34 20 7 7 67
3 Bravo 34 19 5 10 62
4 Olimpija Ljubljana 34 16 7 11 55
5 Maribor 34 15 8 11 53
6 Radomlje 34 13 6 15 45
7 Aluminij 34 10 6 18 36
8 Mura 34 8 7 19 31
9 Primorje 34 6 4 24 22
10 NK Domzale 18 3 3 12 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Celje 34 85 32 +53 74
2 Koper 34 71 43 +28 67
3 Bravo 34 62 51 +11 62
4 Maribor 34 57 43 +14 53
5 Olimpija Ljubljana 34 50 40 +10 55
6 Radomlje 34 50 63 -13 45
7 Aluminij 34 42 61 -19 36
8 Mura 34 35 55 -20 31
9 Primorje 34 31 74 -43 22
10 NK Domzale 18 17 38 -21 12