Predictions / Football / Slovenia. 1. SNL / Mura vs Maribor

Prediction Audit: Mura vs Maribor Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mura Mura
May 17, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.45
1 1.25
xG Accuracy: 80%
Maribor Maribor

AI correctly predicted the Mura win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Mura Mura ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Maribor higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Maribor -17.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mura 41.8% 25.4% +16.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.7% 24.2% +1.5 pp Aligned
Maribor 32.6% 50.5% -17.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Maribor's win probability at 50.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.6%, a difference of 17.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Mura win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Maribor than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Mura higher (59.7% vs model 41.8%, 17.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Mura win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mura 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Maribor 32.6%
    • xG · Mura 1.45 — Maribor 1.25
  2. May 16, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mura 3.68 · Draw 3.86 · Maribor 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Mura 25.4% · Draw 24.2% · Maribor 50.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Mura 3.68 · Draw 3.86 · Maribor 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Mura 25.4% · Draw 24.2% · Maribor 50.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 17, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mura win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (18 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 3/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1616493

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds 2.39
CLV Pending
Final Result Mura win · Mura 2–1 Maribor
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Probability Calibration

  • Expected: 41.8%
  • Historical Bucket: 40–45% — Actual 0.0% (n=2)

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 1. SNL
  • Fixture: Mura vs Maribor
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.8% · Draw 25.7% · Away 32.6%
  • xG (showing): Mura 1.45 — Maribor 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.7)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 57.2% · Implied: 42.8% · Probability edge: +14.4 pts · Est. EV: +28.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 42.8% · No 57.2%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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1. SNL 1. SNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Celje 34 23 5 6 74
2 Koper 34 20 7 7 67
3 Bravo 34 19 5 10 62
4 Olimpija Ljubljana 34 16 7 11 55
5 Maribor 34 15 8 11 53
6 Radomlje 34 13 6 15 45
7 Aluminij 34 10 6 18 36
8 Mura 34 8 7 19 31
9 Primorje 34 6 4 24 22
10 NK Domzale 18 3 3 12 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Celje 34 85 32 +53 74
2 Koper 34 71 43 +28 67
3 Bravo 34 62 51 +11 62
4 Maribor 34 57 43 +14 53
5 Olimpija Ljubljana 34 50 40 +10 55
6 Radomlje 34 50 63 -13 45
7 Aluminij 34 42 61 -19 36
8 Mura 34 35 55 -20 31
9 Primorje 34 31 74 -43 22
10 NK Domzale 18 17 38 -21 12