Predictions / Football / Slovenia. 1. SNL / Primorje vs Koper

Prediction Audit: Primorje vs Koper Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Primorje Primorje
Apr 10, 2026 - 15:30
0 1.45
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 32%
Koper Koper

The model missed the final outcome (Koper win 0–4).

The model had projected Primorje at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Primorje Koper ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 0-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 4 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Primorje; match finished Koper

Market lesson

The full-time result was Koper win 0–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Before kickoff Forecast generated
    • xG · Primorje 1.45 — Koper 1.25
  2. Apr 10, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Koper win · 0–4
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 08:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1690440

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Koper win · Primorje 0–4 Koper
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Related Predictions

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Back to Predictions
1. SNL 1. SNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Celje 34 23 5 6 74
2 Koper 34 20 7 7 67
3 Bravo 34 19 5 10 62
4 Olimpija Ljubljana 34 16 7 11 55
5 Maribor 34 15 8 11 53
6 Radomlje 34 13 6 15 45
7 Aluminij 34 10 6 18 36
8 Mura 34 8 7 19 31
9 Primorje 34 6 4 24 22
10 NK Domzale 18 3 3 12 12
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Celje 34 85 32 +53 74
2 Koper 34 71 43 +28 67
3 Bravo 34 62 51 +11 62
4 Maribor 34 57 43 +14 53
5 Olimpija Ljubljana 34 50 40 +10 55
6 Radomlje 34 50 63 -13 45
7 Aluminij 34 42 61 -19 36
8 Mura 34 35 55 -20 31
9 Primorje 34 31 74 -43 22
10 NK Domzale 18 17 38 -21 12