Predictions / Football / Croatia. HNL / NK Osijek vs NK Slaven Belupo

Prediction Audit: NK Osijek vs NK Slaven Belupo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

NK Osijek NK Osijek
May 22, 2026 - 14:00
2 1.31
0 0.87
xG Accuracy: 65%
NK Slaven Belupo NK Slaven Belupo

AI correctly predicted the NK Osijek win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 NK Osijek NK Osijek ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 0-1, 2-0 2-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +4.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
NK Osijek 45.2% 45.7% -0.5 pp Aligned
Draw 31.7% 27.2% +4.5 pp Aligned
NK Slaven Belupo 23.1% 27.2% -4.0 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (NK Osijek win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.18, 2 goals)
  • NK Osijek attacking xG significantly stronger (1.31 vs 0.87)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (NK Osijek win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 23, 2026 · 19:10 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · NK Osijek 45.2% · Draw 31.7% · NK Slaven Belupo 23.1%
    • xG · NK Osijek 1.31 — NK Slaven Belupo 0.87
  2. May 23, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · NK Osijek 2.04 · Draw 3.43 · NK Slaven Belupo 3.43
    • Implied 1X2 · NK Osijek 45.7% · Draw 27.2% · NK Slaven Belupo 27.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 23, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · NK Osijek 2.04 · Draw 3.43 · NK Slaven Belupo 3.43
    • Implied 1X2 · NK Osijek 45.7% · Draw 27.2% · NK Slaven Belupo 27.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 22, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result NK Osijek win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 77/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 17:17 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3062353

Closing Odds 3.43
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result NK Osijek win · NK Osijek 2–0 NK Slaven Belupo
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: HNL
  • Fixture: NK Osijek vs NK Slaven Belupo
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-23 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.2% · Draw 31.7% · Away 23.1%
  • xG (showing): NK Osijek 1.31 — NK Slaven Belupo 0.87 (total xG ≈ 2.18)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 62.8% · Implied: 48.1% · Probability edge: +14.7 pts · Est. EV: +28.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 44.1% · No 55.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-0 (14.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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HNL HNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 27 5 4 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 20 8 8 68
3 NK Varazdin 36 15 9 12 54
4 HNK Rijeka 36 14 11 11 53
5 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 10 14 12 44
6 Istra 1961 36 12 7 17 43
7 NK Slaven Belupo 36 10 11 15 41
8 HNK Gorica 36 11 8 17 41
9 NK Osijek 36 8 11 17 35
10 Vukovar 36 6 10 20 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 93 28 +65 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 61 36 +25 68
3 HNK Rijeka 36 49 36 +13 53
4 NK Varazdin 36 47 46 +1 54
5 NK Slaven Belupo 36 46 61 -15 41
6 HNK Gorica 36 40 48 -8 41
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 40 52 -12 44
8 Istra 1961 36 39 50 -11 43
9 Vukovar 36 37 73 -36 28
10 NK Osijek 36 27 49 -22 35
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 69.3 25.5 +43.8 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 66.5 36.7 +29.8 68
3 HNK Rijeka 36 50.7 32.0 +18.7 53
4 HNK Gorica 36 38.3 43.4 -5.1 41
5 NK Osijek 36 38.2 43.3 -5.1 35
6 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 41.0 46.5 -5.5 44
7 NK Varazdin 36 36.8 42.5 -5.7 54
8 NK Slaven Belupo 36 35.6 51.7 -16.1 41
9 Vukovar 36 29.1 54.0 -24.9 28
10 Istra 1961 36 31.4 61.4 -30.0 43