Predictions / Football / Croatia. HNL / Vukovar vs NK Varazdin

Prediction Audit: Vukovar vs NK Varazdin Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Vukovar Vukovar
May 15, 2026 - 16:00
0 1.18
2 1.35
xG Accuracy: 60%
NK Varazdin NK Varazdin

AI correctly predicted the NK Varazdin win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 NK Varazdin NK Varazdin ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices NK Varazdin higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: NK Varazdin -10.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Vukovar 31.0% 24.7% +6.3 pp Model Higher
Draw 30.0% 26.0% +4.0 pp Aligned
NK Varazdin 39.0% 49.3% -10.3 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates NK Varazdin's win probability at 49.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 10.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (NK Varazdin win 0–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about NK Varazdin than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced NK Varazdin higher (49.3% vs model 39.0%, 10.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (NK Varazdin win 0–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Vukovar 30.9% · Draw 30.0% · NK Varazdin 39.0%
    • xG · Vukovar 1.18 — NK Varazdin 1.35
  2. May 16, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Vukovar 3.85 · Draw 3.66 · NK Varazdin 1.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Vukovar 24.7% · Draw 26.0% · NK Varazdin 49.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Vukovar 3.85 · Draw 3.66 · NK Varazdin 1.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Vukovar 24.7% · Draw 26.0% · NK Varazdin 49.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 15, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result NK Varazdin win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 48/100
Betting Confidence 46/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 16:26 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2522941

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result NK Varazdin win · Vukovar 0–2 NK Varazdin
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: HNL
  • Fixture: Vukovar vs NK Varazdin
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 30.9% · Draw 30.0% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Vukovar 1.18 — NK Varazdin 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.53)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 53.6% · Implied: 47.3% · Probability edge: +6.3 pts · Est. EV: +10.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.0% · No 47.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.7%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming HNL Matches Track Vukovar Next Match Prediction Track NK Varazdin Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Vukovar & NK Varazdin!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
HNL HNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 27 5 4 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 20 8 8 68
3 NK Varazdin 36 15 9 12 54
4 HNK Rijeka 36 14 11 11 53
5 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 10 14 12 44
6 Istra 1961 36 12 7 17 43
7 NK Slaven Belupo 36 10 11 15 41
8 HNK Gorica 36 11 8 17 41
9 NK Osijek 36 8 11 17 35
10 Vukovar 36 6 10 20 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 93 28 +65 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 61 36 +25 68
3 HNK Rijeka 36 49 36 +13 53
4 NK Varazdin 36 47 46 +1 54
5 NK Slaven Belupo 36 46 61 -15 41
6 HNK Gorica 36 40 48 -8 41
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 40 52 -12 44
8 Istra 1961 36 39 50 -11 43
9 Vukovar 36 37 73 -36 28
10 NK Osijek 36 27 49 -22 35
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 69.3 25.5 +43.8 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 66.5 36.7 +29.8 68
3 HNK Rijeka 36 50.7 32.0 +18.7 53
4 HNK Gorica 36 38.3 43.4 -5.1 41
5 NK Osijek 36 38.2 43.3 -5.1 35
6 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 41.0 46.5 -5.5 44
7 NK Varazdin 36 36.8 42.5 -5.7 54
8 NK Slaven Belupo 36 35.6 51.7 -16.1 41
9 Vukovar 36 29.1 54.0 -24.9 28
10 Istra 1961 36 31.4 61.4 -30.0 43