Predictions / Football / Croatia. HNL / NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split

Prediction Audit: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

NK Lokomotiva Zagreb NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
May 16, 2026 - 16:15
1 1.12
1 1.91
xG Accuracy: 75%
HNK Hajduk Split HNK Hajduk Split

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected HNK Hajduk Split at 54.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 HNK Hajduk Split Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 1-3 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates HNK Hajduk Split considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: HNK Hajduk Split +5.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 20.7% 25.3% -4.6 pp Aligned
Draw 24.9% 25.8% -0.9 pp Aligned
HNK Hajduk Split 54.4% 49.0% +5.5 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates HNK Hajduk Split's win probability at 54.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 49.0%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on HNK Hajduk Split.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned HNK Hajduk Split; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on HNK Hajduk Split by 5.5 percentage points (48.9% vs model 54.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 16, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 20.7% · Draw 24.9% · HNK Hajduk Split 54.4%
    • xG · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.12 — HNK Hajduk Split 1.91
  2. May 16, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3.76 · Draw 3.69 · HNK Hajduk Split 1.94
    • Implied 1X2 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 25.3% · Draw 25.8% · HNK Hajduk Split 49.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 16, 2026 · 14:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3.76 · Draw 3.69 · HNK Hajduk Split 1.94
    • Implied 1X2 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 25.3% · Draw 25.8% · HNK Hajduk Split 49.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 16, 2026 · 16:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 72/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 00:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3010837

Closing Odds 1.94
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–1 HNK Hajduk Split
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: HNL
  • Fixture: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-16 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 20.7% · Draw 24.9% · Away 54.4%
  • xG (showing): NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.12 — HNK Hajduk Split 1.91 (total xG ≈ 3.03)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 58.4% · Implied: 54.6% · Probability edge: +3.8 pts · Est. EV: +3.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 58.7% · No 41.3%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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HNL HNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 27 5 4 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 20 8 8 68
3 NK Varazdin 36 15 9 12 54
4 HNK Rijeka 36 14 11 11 53
5 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 10 14 12 44
6 Istra 1961 36 12 7 17 43
7 NK Slaven Belupo 36 10 11 15 41
8 HNK Gorica 36 11 8 17 41
9 NK Osijek 36 8 11 17 35
10 Vukovar 36 6 10 20 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 93 28 +65 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 61 36 +25 68
3 HNK Rijeka 36 49 36 +13 53
4 NK Varazdin 36 47 46 +1 54
5 NK Slaven Belupo 36 46 61 -15 41
6 HNK Gorica 36 40 48 -8 41
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 40 52 -12 44
8 Istra 1961 36 39 50 -11 43
9 Vukovar 36 37 73 -36 28
10 NK Osijek 36 27 49 -22 35
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 69.3 25.5 +43.8 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 66.5 36.7 +29.8 68
3 HNK Rijeka 36 50.7 32.0 +18.7 53
4 HNK Gorica 36 38.3 43.4 -5.1 41
5 NK Osijek 36 38.2 43.3 -5.1 35
6 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 41.0 46.5 -5.5 44
7 NK Varazdin 36 36.8 42.5 -5.7 54
8 NK Slaven Belupo 36 35.6 51.7 -16.1 41
9 Vukovar 36 29.1 54.0 -24.9 28
10 Istra 1961 36 31.4 61.4 -30.0 43