Predictions / Football / Croatia. HNL / NK Varazdin vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

Prediction Audit: NK Varazdin vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

NK Varazdin NK Varazdin
May 09, 2026 - 16:45
1 1.21
1 1.03
xG Accuracy: 94%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb NK Lokomotiva Zagreb

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected NK Varazdin at 38.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 NK Varazdin Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices NK Varazdin higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: NK Varazdin -6.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
NK Varazdin 38.4% 44.7% -6.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 32.1% 27.3% +4.8 pp Aligned
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 29.4% 28.0% +1.4 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates NK Varazdin's win probability at 44.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.4%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on NK Varazdin. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned NK Varazdin; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on NK Varazdin by 6.3 percentage points (44.7% vs model 38.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. May 09, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · NK Varazdin 38.5% · Draw 32.1% · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 29.4%
    • xG · NK Varazdin 1.21 — NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.03
  2. May 09, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · NK Varazdin 2.13 · Draw 3.49 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3.40
    • Implied 1X2 · NK Varazdin 44.7% · Draw 27.3% · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 28.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 09, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · NK Varazdin 2.13 · Draw 3.49 · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3.40
    • Implied 1X2 · NK Varazdin 44.7% · Draw 27.3% · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 28.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 09, 2026 · 16:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 68/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 03:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1546855

Closing Odds 2.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · NK Varazdin 1–1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: HNL
  • Fixture: NK Varazdin vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
  • Kickoff: 2026-05-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 32.1% · Away 29.4%
  • xG (showing): NK Varazdin 1.21 — NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1.03 (total xG ≈ 2.24)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 61.2% · Implied: 47.5% · Probability edge: +13.7 pts · Est. EV: +25.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 46.9% · No 53.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (13.3%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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HNL HNL — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 27 5 4 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 20 8 8 68
3 NK Varazdin 36 15 9 12 54
4 HNK Rijeka 36 14 11 11 53
5 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 10 14 12 44
6 Istra 1961 36 12 7 17 43
7 NK Slaven Belupo 36 10 11 15 41
8 HNK Gorica 36 11 8 17 41
9 NK Osijek 36 8 11 17 35
10 Vukovar 36 6 10 20 28
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 93 28 +65 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 61 36 +25 68
3 HNK Rijeka 36 49 36 +13 53
4 NK Varazdin 36 47 46 +1 54
5 NK Slaven Belupo 36 46 61 -15 41
6 HNK Gorica 36 40 48 -8 41
7 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 40 52 -12 44
8 Istra 1961 36 39 50 -11 43
9 Vukovar 36 37 73 -36 28
10 NK Osijek 36 27 49 -22 35
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Dinamo Zagreb 36 69.3 25.5 +43.8 86
2 HNK Hajduk Split 36 66.5 36.7 +29.8 68
3 HNK Rijeka 36 50.7 32.0 +18.7 53
4 HNK Gorica 36 38.3 43.4 -5.1 41
5 NK Osijek 36 38.2 43.3 -5.1 35
6 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 36 41.0 46.5 -5.5 44
7 NK Varazdin 36 36.8 42.5 -5.7 54
8 NK Slaven Belupo 36 35.6 51.7 -16.1 41
9 Vukovar 36 29.1 54.0 -24.9 28
10 Istra 1961 36 31.4 61.4 -30.0 43